SunSirs: Affected by Demand, the Trend of China Shandong Refined Gasoline and Diesel Market Is Differentiated

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price trend of locally refined gasoline and diesel in Shandong has shown some differentiation recently. As of the 13th, the domestic price of 92# gasoline was 7,384.6 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 1.95% this week; The domestic price of 0# diesel is 5,739.4 RMB/ton, with a price trend decline of 0.88%.

Cost aspect: The crude oil market is fluctuating, and the cost support of refined oil products is significant

The crude oil market is mainly volatile. As of the 12th, the settlement price of the March WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $62.84 per barrel, and the settlement price of the April Brent crude oil futures contract was $67.52 per barrel. The international crude oil market is experiencing an upward trend, supported by multiple favorable factors such as the impact of the US winter storm on supply and the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. However, market participants are still not optimistic about the prospects of crude oil demand. The global economic downturn has affected the downward trend of oil prices, and the recent crude oil market has been mainly volatile. The crude oil market directly affects the domestic refined oil market, and there is little change in the domestic gasoline and diesel prices.

Supply side: Shandong's local refining operation is maintained, and the supply of refined oil products is normal

Recently, the operation of Shandong refineries has been relatively stable, with little change in operating rates. The average operating rate of Shandong refineries is around 52%, and the operating rates of major refineries nationwide have slightly increased. Due to the increase in daily processing load in February by Sinopec and PetroChina, the inventory levels of some units have increased, and the social inventory of cost oil is still acceptable, which has a certain impact on the refined oil market.

Demand side: Different demand for gasoline and diesel, market trend differentiation

In terms of gasoline, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, residents' travel and other activities are increasing, and vehicles are returning home for travel. The frequency of private car usage is also increasing, leading to an increase in demand in the domestic gasoline market. However, the increasing popularity of new energy vehicles has resulted in lower than expected demand performance, leading to a slight upward trend in the gasoline market. In terms of diesel, outdoor terminal fuel units have successively stopped work and gone on vacation, construction sites and projects in various regions have also gone on vacation, and logistics and transportation are also on vacation as the New Year approaches. The demand for diesel in the market is becoming increasingly sluggish, which has led to a decline in the trend of the diesel market.

Short term oil prices will continue to be dominated by supply disruptions and geopolitical risks. Against the backdrop of supply disruptions not completely subsiding, geopolitical risks continuing to rise, and strong expectations of OPEC suspending production increases, oil prices may experience wide fluctuations in the near future. From a domestic perspective, there is not much change in the short-term refinery operating rate, and the supply of refined oil is normal. In terms of gasoline, the demand for gasoline has increased due to the impact of the Spring Festival, and it is expected that the gasoline market price may continue to rise in the later period. There are currently no favorable factors for diesel demand, and the overall performance is average. It is expected that the diesel market trend will be sluggish.

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