SunSirs: Methanol Market Prices Fluctuated Within a Narrow Range

Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, from February 2nd to 9th (as of 10:00 AM), the price of methanol at East China ports fell from 2,223 RMB/ton to around 2,220 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.15% during the period, a decrease of 2.02% month-on-month, and a decrease of 16.52% year-on-year. The domestic methanol market was weak. Before the holiday, enterprises were still mainly focused on clearing inventory and shipping goods. Coupled with a weak macroeconomic environment, the price continued to decline. As destocking gradually came to an end, market trading had become sluggish, and downstream users were gradually withdrawing from the market to wait and see.

As of the close of trading on February 9th, methanol futures prices on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange rose. The most active methanol futures contract, 2605, opened at 2,236 RMB/ton, reached a high of 2,255 RMB/ton, a low of 2,227 RMB/ton, and closed at 2,231 RMB/ton, up 1 RMB/ton from the previous trading day's settlement price, a gain of 0.04%. Trading volume was 849,691 lots, open interest was 831,646 lots, an increase of 5,357 lots from the previous day.

Market analysis

On the cost side, with the Spring Festival approaching, both coal supply and demand were weak, overall market trading activity had decreased, and coal prices were fluctuating within a range. The impact of costs was mixed.

On the demand side, the profit fluctuations for formaldehyde, glacial acetic acid, and dimethyl ether companies were relatively narrow. As the market gradually nearing the Spring Festival, price fluctuations were limited. Most downstream products were affected by methanol prices, resulting in a generally bearish impact on methanol market.

On the supply side, Shenhua Xilaifeng's plant was undergoing maintenance; Pucheng Clean Energy's plant had resumed operations; overall, the recovery volume exceeded the loss volume, resulting in increased production and higher capacity utilization. These factors are generally bearish for methanol market.

On the international market, as of the close of trading on February 6, the CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at $322.5-323.5 per ton. The FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at 106.5-107.5 cents per gallon; the European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at €296.5-297.5 per ton, down €1 per ton.

Market outlook

With the Spring Festival approaching, upstream inventory reduction and downstream stockpiling were nearing their end, and the overall market sentiment may weaken further. According to analysts at SunSirs, the domestic methanol spot market is expected to mainly consolidate and fluctuate.

If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.