Ore supply continues to be tight

In terms of ore import volume, currently, the year-on-year growth rate of China's tin ore imports remains negative. According to data from China Customs, in November 2025, China imported 15,099 tons of tin concentrate in physical quantity, equivalent to 4,588.4 tons of tin metal, a month-on-month increase of 0.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%. In the same month, the import volumes from major producing countries and regions showed mixed changes. Among them, the total imports from Myanmar and African regions increased to 868.7 tons and 2,672.4 tons respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 20.3% and 18.3% respectively; imports from South America and Australia decreased, reaching 194.9 tons and 476.2 tons respectively, with year-on-year decreases of 52.3% and 22.8% respectively. In the first 11 months of 2025, China imported a total of 277,000 tons of tin concentrate in physical quantity, equivalent to 46,000 tons of tin metal, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%.

Looking back at 2025, frequent accidents in major tin-producing countries boosted tin prices. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the escalation of armed conflicts led to the suspension of production at the main mine Bisie. Nigeria stepped up efforts to crack down on illegal mining, further restricting output in the African region. The resumption of production in Wa State, Myanmar, was slow and restricted by in-kind taxes, limiting global tin ore exports.

Regarding tin concentrate processing fees, SMM data shows that as of January 20, the processing fees for tin concentrates in Yunnan and Jiangxi were 14,000 CNY/ton and 10,000 CNY/ton respectively. Currently, the processing fees have rebounded, reflecting that after the tin price has risen sharply, tin ore merchants have increased their enthusiasm for shipping. However, since the beginning of January, the resumption of production of tin concentrates in Wa State, Myanmar has been affected by a shortage of explosives, and the supply of raw materials may be restricted in the short term. Therefore, the short-term supply of ore remains tight.

In terms of refined tin output, according to the output statistics of Antaike on 18 domestic refined tin smelters (with an in-production smelting capacity of over 310,000 tons, covering 98% of the total capacity), in December 2025, the total refined tin output of the above-mentioned enterprises was 19,236 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.3% and a year-on-year increase of 6.0%. In 2025, domestic sample enterprises produced a total of 208,000 tons of refined tin, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%.

The rapid development of artificial intelligence

Favorable for tin demand

The tin chemical industry accounts for approximately 20% of the total consumption of refined tin. In 2025, the real estate market continued to undergo in-depth adjustments. According to data, in 2025, the sales area of newly-built commercial housing in China was 881.01 million square meters, a decrease of 8.7% compared with the previous year, among which the sales area of residential housing decreased by 9.2%. The sales volume of newly-built commercial housing was 8.3937 trillion CNY, a decrease of 12.6%. The general performance of the real estate market had a negative impact on PVC consumption and played a limited role in boosting the demand for refined tin.

The field of tin solder accounts for approximately 40% of the total consumption of refined tin. Tin solder is widely used in the production of electronic components, and applied in industries such as consumer electronics, computers, and automobiles. In terms of electronic components, as the semiconductor industry gradually recovers, relevant consumption is expected to be boosted. In terms of automobiles, in 2025, the policy of replacing old automobiles with new ones was continued, making the automobile market perform well. In 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 34.531 million units and 34.4 million units respectively, with year-on-year growth of 10.4% and 9.4% respectively. Both production and sales hit a new historical high, ranking first in the world for 17 consecutive years.

In addition, photovoltaic power has also driven the demand for tin solder. From January to November 2025, the cumulative newly installed capacity of solar power generation in China was 274.89GW, among which the newly installed capacity in November 2025 was 22.02GW, an increase of 74.76% month-on-month.

It is worth noting that the artificial intelligence industry consumes a huge amount of electricity and requires a large number of copper wires. Connecting these copper wires requires a large number of solder joints, which in turn drives the demand for tin.

In terms of demand, currently, the consumption of tin chemicals is performing mediocrely, while the consumption of tin solder is performing well.

In terms of inventory, as of January 20, the tin inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 8,860 tons. The sharp rise in tin prices has weakened downstream willingness to take delivery, leading to a significant accumulation of inventory. However, the overall prices of non-ferrous metals are currently relatively strong, which has boosted tin prices. Therefore, the current inventory level has limited negative impact on tin prices.

To sum up, in terms of raw materials, the resumption of production of tin concentrate in Wa State, Myanmar is slow, Indonesia is cracking down on illegal mining, and the supply of tin mines in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has again encountered twists and turns, further tightening the supply of tin ore. The tight supply of ore remains the main factor supporting tin prices. On the demand side, the transportation sector and the photovoltaic power generation sector have offset the negative impact of the sluggish real estate market on tin consumption. In addition, the booming development of the artificial intelligence industry will become a new highlight in tin consumption. At present, the fundamentals of tin are still bullish, and it is expected that the price of tin will rise again to 410,000 CNY per ton.

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