SunSirs: Tin Prices Rose Sharply in Early January, Breaking Through the 380,000 RMB/Ton Mark (January 1-13)

Price trend

According to the commodity price analysis system of SunSirs, the market for No. 1 tin ingots in East China showed a strong upward trend this period (January 1-13). The average market price at the beginning of the month was 326,340 RMB/ton, and as of January 13th, the average market price was 381,240 RMB/ton, an increase of 16.82%.

Domestic tin prices have risen sharply again, with the price of the main Shanghai tin futures contract increasing significantly, and domestic spot tin market prices also rising substantially. Although there were minor technical corrections during this period, the overall trend was upward. The recent price movement was the result of a combination of macroeconomic expectations, industry fundamentals, and short-term supply disruptions.

Macroeconomic factors

Although expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have somewhat diminished, the Fed remained in an easing cycle, and expectations of global liquidity easing were providing liquidity support to the metals market. As the world's largest tin exporter, Indonesia's progress in approving mining quotas and its export policy dynamics remained a constant source of uncertainty for the market, keeping it on high alert. Meanwhile, domestic industrial policies centered around new productive forces such as artificial intelligence and high-end manufacturing were being implemented at an accelerated pace, adding certainty to the long-term demand prospects for tin.

Supply side

Disruptions at the mining end continued: Although a peace agreement has been reached in the Democratic Republic of Congo, some areas remaiedn unstable, creating uncertainty in tin mining production and transportation; the resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State was slower than expected due to approval processes, resulting in significant fluctuations in tin ore imports.

Indonesian Export Restrictions: Due to restrictions on Indonesian export quotas, short-term exports have decreased sharply, further exacerbating the global tin supply shortage.

Low Inventory Levels: Global tin inventories continued to decline, with both exchange-registered and social inventories at historically low levels. Domestic inventory decreased by 1,100 tons compared to the beginning of the month, reaching a total of 6,245 tons.

Demand side

The semiconductor market was showing strong demand: global semiconductor sales were continuously increasing, with a year-on-year growth of 21.2% during the period from January to October 2025. This is due to the extremely strong demand for tin in the semiconductor industry, particularly in the high-end chip manufacturing and packaging sectors.

Emerging sectors were driving demand growth: With the rapid development of emerging fields such as artificial intelligence, high-performance computing, and photovoltaics, tin, as a key soldering material, was experiencing continuously increasing demand, indicating a positive long-term demand outlook.

The spot market was being affected by the recent surge in tin prices, leading to weak purchasing sentiment among downstream buyers. Raw material cost pressures were gradually being passed down the supply chain, and most downstream companies were adopting a just-in-time purchasing approach, with little willingness to replenish inventories. There was limited availability of spot resources on the market, although the premium decreased somewhat.

Comprehensive analysis 

Recently, the overseas market has been active, driving up domestic prices. Currently, the overseas market has retreated after reaching a high point and entered a range-bound trading pattern. It is expected that Shanghai tin prices will also follow a similar oscillating trend. In the short term, supported by strong fundamentals, the market is expected to maintain a strong trend, with prices remaining at a high level and potentially challenging the 400,000 RMB/ton mark. However, it is also important to be aware of the risk of a correction due to insufficient support from the demand side in the spot market.

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