SunSirs: China’s Sulfur Market Forecast to Tighten in 2026

In 2026, there will be a total of 2 new or expanded domestic sulfur plants, with a total production capacity of 500,000 tons per year. Downstream, 15 new plants are planned for monoammonium phosphate, diammonium phosphate, caprolactam, titanium dioxide, phosphoric acid, etc., with a total production capacity of 4.64 million tons per year. Based on their respective unit consumption of sulfur, it is estimated that the consumption of sulfur will increase by 3.2924 million tons per year.

In terms of the commissioning schedule, the new sulfur production capacity is unevenly distributed between the first half and the second half of the year, with an estimated 120,000 tons/year and 380,000 tons/year to be commissioned respectively. On the downstream side, the distribution of new installations between the first half and the second half is relatively balanced, and overall, the number in the first half is less than that in the second half. It is expected that the sulfur consumption capacity will increase by 1.2754 million tons/year in the first half, and by 2.017 million tons/year in the second half. Comparing the commissioning schedules of upstream and downstream sectors, the new scale of downstream products throughout the year significantly exceeds the new sulfur supply, and the demand gap continues to widen. From the perspective of the annual supply and demand structure, the new downstream consumption capacity is about 2.7924 million tons/year higher than the new sulfur production capacity.

II, 2026 Sulfur Monthly Supply and Demand Balance Data

In 2026, the total domestic output of sulfur products in China is expected to be 12.1 million tons, and with an import volume of approximately 10.2 million tons, the total supply will reach 22.1 million tons. On the downstream side, the consumption in major fields such as phosphate fertilizer, caprolactam, titanium dioxide, commercial sulfuric acid, and new energy is expected to be 22.1 million tons. Overall, the annual supply-demand gap is expected to be around 200,000 tons, showing an overall fundamental trend of tight supply balance.

From the perspective of the monthly supply-demand gap, it is expected that the sulfur market will generally be in a state of tight supply and demand in 2026. With the successive commissioning of new downstream production capacities, the annual cumulative supply-demand gap will maintain a narrowing trend. Specifically, inventory destocking will be more obvious from January to April; supply and demand will be roughly balanced in May, August and September; and inventory accumulation will occur in the remaining months. Looking at the trend of the annual cumulative supply-demand gap, the supply-demand gap will be negative for most of the first half of the year, and will continue to turn positive in the second half of the year, climbing month by month. The cumulative inventory accumulation for the whole year is expected to be about 200,000 tons. Overall, the fundamentals of the sulfur market in 2026 are expected to maintain a pattern of tight supply and demand.

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