SunSirs: What’s Driving Sulfur Prices Wild?

It is reported that at the end of 2025, the market price of sulfur in China has once again experienced a surge, reaching a price of 4000 yuan/t, an increase of 185% cumulatively in 2025, and the average price in 2025 exceeded 2400 yuan/t, reaching the highest historical level. The market price of sulfur has been rising for many days in a row, which is relatively rare among chemical products this year.

Looking at the annual average price, from 2009 to 2025, the Chinese sulfur market price has shown a wide range of fluctuations, with the price fluctuating between 700 yuan/t and 1700 yuan/t. Among them, there was a historical high point in 2022, with the market price exceeding 2200 yuan/t, and in the past few years, it has basically maintained a weak sideways pattern. However, in 2025, the annual average price of the market price set a historical high point in the past 16 years, and the annual stage high touched 4000 yuan/t.

From the perspective of the daily price trend, the daily market price of China's granulated sulfur during the period from 2009 to 2020 basically fluctuated within the range of 1000 yuan/t to 2000 yuan/t. Starting from 2021, China's sulfur market price has shown significant fluctuations, with the highest daily price reaching as high as 3900 yuan/t, but it quickly dropped to around 800 yuan/t. As of the end of 2025, China's sulfur market price has exceeded 3800 yuan/t, having continuously increased for more than 150 days. Although it has not yet broken through the historical high point, the current market attention is high, and the probability of further increase is relatively large.

The reasons for the continuous rise in sulfur prices for several months may include the following:

1. Energy transition brings about structural changes, sudden factors lead to supply reduction.

The production of new energy vehicles continues to grow, although the growth rate has slowed, it still maintains a positive growth trend. The growth of new energy vehicles brings about a contraction in the consumption of traditional fuel, and the refining rate has remained at a low level for a long time. Most of the sulfur comes from the by-product of the refining process, and the production of by-product sulfur is also maintained at a low level when the refining unit is not operating at full capacity.

In addition, geopolitical turmoil, the continuous production cuts by OPEC+, the promotion of low-sulfur crude oil leading to a decrease in sulfur production, Russia's implementation of a sulfur export ban, blockages in the Red Sea shipping, and the centralized overhaul of refineries in Central Asia such as Kazakhstan have all led to a significant reduction in supply, supporting the continuous rise in sulfur.

2, sulfur has a strong seasonal pattern, with a 64% probability of an increase in winter in previous years.

Every winter, the global demand for phosphatic fertilizers is released, and the demand for phosphatic fertilizers in China, India, Indonesia and other countries increases, which drives the hype in the phosphatic fertilizer market. Sulfur is mainly used to prepare sulfuric acid, which is applied in the front end of phosphatic fertilizer manufacturing, namely, phosphorite flotation. According to the fluctuation of the industrial chain value, the growth of phosphatic fertilizer demand has a significant driving effect on sulfur.
According to the price fluctuation rules in the past 16 years, the probability of sulfur price increase in November and December every year is more than 64%.

3, corporate inventory, port inventory, and social inventory are all at low levels, forming a market atmosphere of supply shortage.

According to relevant data, as of the end of November 2025, China's port sulfur inventory was only 2.2 million tons, below the reasonable level, and the inventory in some areas was only above 1.8 million tons, with a low port inventory. Imported sulfur accounts for about 47% of China's total sulfur consumption, which is an important way of sulfur supply in China. The scale of port inventory will have a direct impact on the scale of sulfur market supply.

The recent low level of port sulfur inventory is directly related to seasonal factors and international sudden situations. Downstream enterprises are worried about supply shortages, so they hoard goods in advance, which further exacerbates the contradiction between supply and demand. In addition, the market, under the mentality of "buying when prices rise, not when prices fall", Chinese sulfur market traders and end-use enterprises are actively purchasing, forming a cycle that further make prices.

4, There is a possibility that sulfur could break historical records within the next 1-2 months. By the end of November, the market price of sulfur in China had touched around 4000 yuan/ton, and the market atmosphere was relatively positive. However, a rapid increase could also lead to a rise in resistance from downstream users, and there may be a possibility of high-level fluctuations and minor adjustments in the early part of December. However, as the winter reserve of phosphatic fertilizers in the Northern Hemisphere peaks, prices may once again surge in December.

It is suggested to view the market sentiment of sulfur rationally. As an important raw material for phosphatic fertilizers and industrial production, sulfur directly determines the market price of sulfuric acid and the production cost of downstream enterprises. A too high sulfur price will bring greater pressure to the already relatively sluggish downstream production. Downstream enterprises should also arrange their purchasing rhythm reasonably, take advantage of the price adjustment window to stock up appropriately, and traders need to be cautious about reserving inventory. After all, the risk of adjustment brought by the historical high price of sulfur is also relatively large.

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