SunSirs: The Acrylic Acid Market Prices Are "Hovering" in a Stalemate Between Rising and Falling

Price trend

Currently, the acrylic acid market is in a "stalemate" situation with neither significant price increases nor decreases. As of January 12th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid according to SunSirs was 5,866.67 RMB/ton, a 0.28% increase compared to the beginning of the month (5,850.00 RMB/ton).

Market Analysis

Cost side:

The price of propylene, the main raw material, remained relatively firm amidst fluctuating demand during the winter and the volatility of international oil prices. As of January 12th, the benchmark price of propylene according to SunSirs was 5,871.00 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.68% compared to the beginning of the month (5,717.67 RMB/ton). This also determines the cost floor for acrylic acid. Manufacturers' profit margins have been squeezed, and they are not strongly inclined to lower prices.

Costs were rising faster than product prices, leading to compressed industry profits, and increased losses for some staple fiber factories. From a company perspective, there was no new capacity added throughout the year, and older facilities were decommissioned, reducing annual capacity to 9.875 million tons. Factories increased production cuts or maintenance, resulting in low inventory levels and tight supply, which supported upward price movements.

Supply Side:

Although 2025-2026 is the period for the commissioning of new acrylic acid production capacity in China, some major factories have undergone unplanned or extended shutdowns for maintenance since the beginning of the year, offsetting some of the supply increase from the new capacity. The overall operating rate of the industry remains in the 75%-80% range, and inventory levels are at a moderate level, without creating significant pressure.

Demand Side:

January and February are traditionally the off-season for downstream industries such as coatings and adhesives, with purchasing primarily driven by essential needs. The end-consumer market (such as real estate and textiles/apparel) is recovering slowly, leading downstream companies to adopt a "purchase-on-demand, maintain low inventory" strategy for raw materials. Large-scale stockpiling is rare, which suppresses upward price momentum but also means the market is not accumulating significant speculative inventory risk. Overseas markets (especially Southeast Asia) maintain a certain level of demand, providing an alternative channel for domestic supply and preventing a full-blown impact of overcapacity.

How long can this "stable" state last?

The current weak equilibrium is fragile and is expected to be broken between the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second quarter of 2026. Specifically, consider the following key variables:

1. The strength and pace of demand recovery

After March, downstream industries will enter the traditional peak season for stocking up during the "golden March and April" period. If the effects of real estate policies become apparent and the consumer goods market recovers, leading to a stronger-than-expected rebound in demand for products such as butyl acrylate (for coatings) and superabsorbent polymers (SAP, used in hygiene products), the market will quickly destock, and prices are expected to break upwards. Conversely, if the peak season demand is "insufficient," the market will lose support due to disappointment.

2. Supply-side variables

After the end of the first quarter, previously idled facilities due to maintenance will gradually resume production, and the output from newly added capacity will be more fully realized. Supply pressure will increase significantly in the second quarter. If prolonged price stagnation leads to a continued deterioration of industry profits, some high-cost facilities may be forced to reduce production or shut down, thereby adjusting supply once again.

3. Macroeconomic and Cost Environment

The trend of international energy prices will directly reshape the cost structure. A sustained rise or fall in crude oil prices will disrupt the current balance of costs. The actual implementation and effectiveness of domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth and boosting consumption will determine the fundamental direction of end-user demand.

In conclusion: 

The current "stable" state of the acrylic acid market is a dynamic and fragile equilibrium, which is not expected to last beyond the first quarter of 2026. The second quarter will be a critical period for determining the market direction, with its trajectory highly dependent on the interplay between actual demand during the "traditional peak season" and the increase in supply.

For market participants, it is currently inadvisable to have excessive expectations for a one-sided market trend. Flexible operations and strict inventory control remain the best strategies, and preparations should be made for potential trending market movements in the second quarter.

If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.