SunSirs: From Scale Expansion to Technological Premium: Transformations for the Acrylic Acid Market in 2025-2026

Review of Acrylic Acid Price Trends in 2025

1. The trend is clearly defined, with no effective rebound throughout the year:

The price fell steadily from 8,196 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year (January 1st) to 5,900 RMB/ton at the end of the year (December 17th), a cumulative decrease of 2,308 RMB/ton. Each point on the chart is lower than the previous one, showing a clear downward trend, indicating consistent bearish market expectations and sustained selling pressure.

2. The decline widened quarter by quarter, and the market accelerated its downward trend in the second half of the year:

First half of the year (until June 25th): The price fell from 8,196 to 7,009 RMB/ton, a decrease of approximately 14.5%. The decline was relatively gradual.

Second half of the year (after June 25th): The rate of decline accelerated significantly, falling from 7,009 RMB/ton to 5,900 RMB/ton, with the decrease widening to approximately 16%. Particularly in the fourth quarter, the year-on-year price decline rapidly expanded from -10.22% to -22.41%, indicating extremely pessimistic market sentiment.

The market logic behind the trend

This trend is a direct manifestation and quantitative proof of the "overcapacity" pressure mentioned in previous analyses:

Supply pressure has become absolutely dominant: the continuous price decline without any rebound indicates that the release of new production capacity is a sustained and overwhelming force, which cannot be countered by any seasonal recovery in demand.

The industry is entering a brutal shakeout phase: prices are falling below cost and accelerating their decline. This is a process where the market uses price mechanisms to forcibly eliminate high-cost production capacity and drive the industry's supply and demand back into balance. The accelerated decline shown in the chart is likely accompanied by production cuts or shutdowns at some small and medium-sized enterprises.

In summary, 2025 represents the most direct illustration of the acrylic acid industry shifting "from a tight balance to a complete oversupply." This confirms that the industry is undergoing a drastic supply-side adjustment.

Total acrylic acid production capacity in 2025

As of the end of June 2025, China's total acrylic acid production capacity had increased to 4.4 million tons. This was mainly due to the addition of 320,000 tons of new capacity in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, an additional 740,000 tons of planned new capacity are expected to come online.

Major New Production Capacity Projects and Distribution

The new production capacity expected in 2025 is concentrated in a few large enterprises, mainly located in North China and South China.

The core impact of acrylic acid imports and exports on the industry in 2025.

Export side: Given that China accounts for more than half of global production capacity and domestic prices are expected to plummet by 2025, exports are crucial for alleviating overcapacity. However, global market demand is also weak, and competition from low-cost producers in the Middle East and Southeast Asia is significantly squeezing export profit margins.

Import side: Although the total volume may not be large, every ton of high-end acrylic acid imported (such as that used in photoresists and medical gels) represents a high-value market dominated by foreign companies. The import dependence for high-end products remains as high as over 70%, which directly quantifies the urgency and potential for domestic industrial upgrading.

Key development directions for acrylic acid in 2026

To overcome the current difficulties, the industry must shift from pursuing scale to focusing on high-quality development. Specifically, there are three key areas for breakthroughs:

1. High-end positioning and "technology premium"

This is the core path to breaking free from low-level price wars and achieving excess profits.

Currently, high-end products like medical-grade acrylic acid (purity ≥99.99%) can command a retail price three times that of ordinary products, but only a few domestic companies can produce them. The industry is shifting from "scale competition" to "technology premium" competition. In the future, the focus needs to be on breakthroughs in cutting-edge fields such as electronic-grade acrylic acid monomers (used in semiconductor photoresists) and bio-based acrylic acid.

2. Greening of manufacturing processes and cost reduction

This is fundamental to improving cost competitiveness and achieving sustainable development.

Disruptive technologies such as "direct oxidation of propane to acrylic acid," compared to traditional multi-step processes, offer advantages such as shorter process flows, lower investment, and reduced costs, making them an important direction for future development. For example, Keyuan Holdings' multi-billion dollar acrylic acid industrial park in Maoming, Guangdong, utilizes this globally leading green technology.

3. Supply Chain Integration and Ecosystem Building

This is crucial for leading companies to consolidate their advantages and enhance their risk resistance capabilities.

Leading companies can significantly reduce costs through upstream and downstream integration. For example, Satellite Chemical has achieved a raw material self-sufficiency rate of over 95%, with its cost per ton 12% lower than the industry average. Leading companies are building competitive barriers through "technological innovation + supply chain integration," and industry concentration is continuously increasing. In the future, companies with comprehensive supply chain collaboration capabilities will be more competitive.

In summary, 2025 will be a turning point for the acrylic industry, marked by significant challenges. The sharp drop in prices is a direct manifestation of the overcapacity problem. Looking ahead, the model of simply expanding production capacity has reached its limit. The industry's future lies in technological innovation and value enhancement. Companies that successfully move towards "high-end" products, master "green technologies," and complete "supply chain integration" will be able to weather the cyclical downturn and dominate the next wave of high-quality development.

Acrylic acid price forecast for 2026

1. Price range throughout the year:

It is expected that mainstream market prices (premium grade in East China) will fluctuate within the range of 5,800 - 7,800 RMB/ton. The bottom price (approximately 5,800 RMB/ton) is supported by the industry's average cash cost line. If the price falls below this line, it will trigger the shutdown of more high-cost production capacity, thus reducing supply.

The top end (approximately 7,800 RMB/ton): Strong resistance is posed by the pressure from excess capacity. Any rebound will stimulate the release of existing capacity, leading to weak price increases.

2. Seasonal trends:

First half of the year: The weak trend is expected to continue. The downward momentum from the end of 2025, high inventory levels, and the off-season for demand (especially in the architectural coatings sector) will combine to potentially push prices to test or even briefly fall below the cost line.

Second half of the year: A small, corrective rebound is possible. This could be driven by: supply contraction due to the closure of production facilities operating below cost, moderate inventory replenishment during the traditional peak demand season of September and October, or an unexpected strengthening of crude oil (propylene feedstock) prices. However, the magnitude and duration of this rebound will be very limited.

3. Analysis of Core Influencing Factors:

The primary negative factor: The fundamental problem is the contradiction between the high total production capacity of up to 4.5 million tons in 2025 and the sluggish demand. Although the increase in new capacity may slow down in 2026, it will take time to absorb the existing inventory.

Exports: This is key to alleviating oversupply pressure. If overseas demand recovers or the RMB exchange rate is favorable, increased exports will become the most important upward catalyst.

High-end products: The prices of ordinary acrylic acid and high-end specialty acrylic acid will continue to diverge. The prices of electronic-grade and other products (which may remain in the range of 15,000-40,000 RMB/ton) will be completely decoupled from the trend of commodity prices, depending on technological breakthroughs.

Summary: 2026 will be a year of bottoming out and digesting excess capacity for the acrylic bulk commodities market. Overall industry profitability will be at a historical low. However, it will also be a year of "value discovery" for high-end products. Companies capable of producing high-value-added specialty products will see their prices and profits remain completely independent of the industry's downturn. Therefore, when observing prices in 2026, it is crucial to distinguish between the "bulk commodity price index" and the "specialty product prices," which represent two distinctly different curves.

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