SunSirs:Wood Pulp Prices Expected to Continue Rising Through January 2026

Hardwood pulp prices continue to rise in international markets, while domestic price increases slow. The December spot market for imported wood pulp showed divergent price trends, with transactions driven by essential demand. Hardwood pulp prices rose in December, white cardstock manufacturers continued issuing price increase notices, and cultural paper prices stabilized with slightly pressured profitability. The sector anticipates sustained pulp price increases through January 2026, with white paper prices gradually passing on costs and black paper prices continuing to rise.

Cultural Paper: Mill Price Hikes Stabilize End Prices Amid Persistent Weak Demand

As of December 29, the December market average for 70g wood-pulp high-bright double-coated paper stood at 4,730 yuan/ton, down 0.04% month-on-month. Key factors influencing price fluctuations: 1) Mill price hikes at month-start failed to materialize, fueling market caution; 2) Year-end rational purchasing by distributors led to inventory buildup in mid-to-late December; 3) Publishing order deliveries eased inventory pressure, driving partial price increases for natural white double-coated paper; 4) Wood pulp prices rose modestly, but pulp-to-paper price transmission remained suboptimal.

White Cardboard: Price hikes drive continued upward trend amid low inventory levels

As of December 29, the average monthly transaction price (tax-inclusive) for 250-400g sheet white cardboard stood at 4,237 yuan/ton, up 0.98% month-on-month but down 0.16% year-on-year. Key factors influencing price movements: 1) Low paper prices and cost pressures led major mills to persist with price hikes; 2) Traders showed mixed responses to increases, with some raising prices by 50-100 yuan/ton while others prioritized volume sales to reduce inventory; 3) End-user orders varied and fell short of expectations, while declines in other packaging papers amplified bearish sentiment.

Corrugated Paper: Mill Price Hikes Persist Amid Profit Pressure

As of December 29, China's AA-grade 120g corrugated paper averaged 3,129 yuan/ton monthly, down 1.29% month-on-month but up 8.50% year-on-year. Key factors influencing price movements: 1) Supply side: Large mills continued price hikes in early December while small-to-medium mills offered discounts to move inventory, creating divergent market sentiment. Mid-to-late month saw large mills maintaining prices with unexpectedly favorable settlements, shifting transaction levels downward due to oversold conditions; 2) Cost side: Waste paper prices continued declining with accelerated drops mid-month, pressuring paper prices. A late-month rebound moderated bearish pressure; 3) On the demand side, limited improvement in packaging orders and bearish market expectations led downstream players to focus on inventory depletion. Increased inventory pressure at paper mills suppressed prices, with limited restocking activity at month-end.

Waste Paper: Increased Domestic Supply Drives Overall Price Decline

As of December 29, the monthly average price for waste corrugated cardboard stood at 1,767 yuan/ton, down 6.18% month-on-month but up 10.79% year-on-year. Key factors influencing price trends: 1) Packaging stations held substantial profit-driven inventories. As shipping intentions intensified, waste corrugated cardboard supply increased; 2) Bearish sentiment spread among downstream paper mills. With finished paper sales weakening, mills shifted to discounting waste paper purchases; 3) Leading paper enterprises repeatedly lowered procurement prices, amplifying market pessimism and driving down waste corrugated cardboard prices.

Wood Pulp: Hardwood pulp overseas prices continued to rise, while domestic price increases slowed

The December imported wood pulp spot market exhibited divergent price trends, with essential demand transactions dominating the market. Key factors influencing price movements included: 1) The upward trend in the main pulp futures contract combined with sustained increases in hardwood pulp overseas prices boosted traders' cost expectations, driving up average prices for both softwood and hardwood pulp; 2) Unbleached pulp faced supply surplus and weak demand, pressuring average prices downward; 3) Chemical mechanical pulp maintained stable supply-demand balance with tight market availability, resulting in a slight increase in average prices.

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