SunSirs : 2026 Thermal Coal Price Forecast Stabilizes Between RMB 00-900

During the heating season, thermal coal price trends have once again become the market's focal point.

According to the Bohai Rim Thermal Coal Spot Reference Price released by the China Coal Market Data System (CCTD), as of December 17, the prices per ton for the three specifications—5500 kcal, 5000 kcal, and 4500 kcal—closed at RMB 738, RMB 635, and RMB 536 respectively. Each fell by RMB 8 per ton compared to the previous day, with declines exceeding 10% from earlier peaks. Industry insiders noted that coal prices inherently exhibit volatility, directly linked to weather changes and fluctuations in power demand.

Looking ahead to 2026, the coal market is expected to maintain a basic supply-demand equilibrium. Port prices for thermal coal are projected to range between RMB 700 and RMB 900 per ton, with the price center slightly higher than in 2025. Seasonal fluctuations in demand may become the key factor influencing the future trend and direction of coal prices.

“Anti-Involution” Campaign Yields Results

In 2021, driven by severe temporary supply-demand imbalances and extreme weather, spot prices for 5,500 kcal thermal coal at ports surged to a historic peak of RMB2,600 per ton. Power plants across multiple regions faced “coal shortages leading to shutdowns,” severely disrupting normal production and daily life for businesses and residents. In response, the state swiftly implemented a comprehensive set of measures to ensure supply and stabilize prices. By boosting production, controlling prices, and regulating the market, coal prices gradually returned to a reasonable range.

However, with sustained supply-guarantee policies and steady release of coal mine capacity, national coal production has maintained growth for consecutive years. Combined with the substitution effect of rapidly expanding renewable energy generation capacity on thermal power, the coal market has shifted from supply shortages to oversupply. By June this year, the price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal in Qinhuangdao reached RMB 615 per ton.

In July this year, the coal industry witnessed a “counter-trend.” The General Office of the National Energy Administration issued the “Notice on Organizing Verification of Coal Mine Production to Promote Stable and Orderly Coal Supply,” stipulating that annual raw coal output must not exceed announced capacity, and monthly output must not exceed 10% of announced capacity. The market entered a new phase of supply-demand rebalancing, with prices rebounding temporarily. On November 12, the price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port reached RMB 834 per ton.

The “anti-involution” regulatory measures implemented in July have yielded tangible results. They not only effectively curbed the previous downward spiral of coal prices and cutthroat competition among enterprises but also propelled coal prices back to a reasonable range, safeguarding the industry's stable and healthy development.

Current prices better reflect actual supply and demand

The coal market currently exhibits dynamic supply-demand equilibrium, with prices trending toward a reasonable range. Following a sharp decline, coal prices have retreated to relatively low levels. Current pricing better reflects actual market dynamics, deflating earlier inflated bubbles and supporting the long-term healthy development of the coal industry.

It is understood that during the third quarter of this year, national raw coal production recorded negative year-on-year growth for three consecutive months. From July to October, Shanxi Province's raw coal output declined by 4.47%, 5.33%, 3.14%, and 0.56% year-on-year, respectively. Inner Mongolia's raw coal output recorded year-on-year growth rates of -4.03%, 0.71%, -2.34%, and -4.36%, respectively. Xinjiang's raw coal output showed year-on-year growth rates of -9.6%, -2.07%, -2.54%, and -5.01%, respectively.

From a demand structure perspective, thermal coal prices are expected to fluctuate between 700 RMB /ton and 900 RMB /ton, with demand likely maintaining positive growth to form the core demand base. This is primarily driven by the inelastic growth of power demand and the role of coal-fired power as a “ballast” during fluctuations in output from renewable sources like wind and solar power. Total coal consumption is projected to enter a plateau phase, while thermal coal's “ballast” function will persist long-term.

The regulatory tools employed by relevant authorities to manage coal prices have matured and become more refined. Through prolonged market dynamics and policy guidance, coal enterprises have developed a solid grasp of market supply-demand fluctuations, enabling them to align production and operations with market rhythms effectively.

Mechanisms like premium pricing for high-quality coal reduce transaction costs for upstream and downstream enterprises, promote fair trade, and create a policy environment for the coal industry's smooth transition toward high-quality development.

Planning Should Be Done in Advance

Amid minor price fluctuations, coal enterprises' profitability has diverged significantly.

The entire industry faced profitability pressures due to falling prices, with coal mining and washing profits declining significantly year-on-year in the first few months of this year. However, large leading enterprises demonstrated greater profit stability and certainty, leveraging low costs, high proportions of long-term contracts, and integrated coal-power operations. In contrast, some small and medium-sized coal enterprises, particularly those in older mining areas with poor resource conditions and high costs, fell into losses.

For small and medium-sized coal enterprises already in the red, breaking the deadlock requires proactive measures.

For small and medium-sized coal enterprises already mired in losses, breaking the deadlock requires proactive change. Small and medium-sized coal enterprises can leverage regional or coal-type characteristics to pursue differentiated competition, deepen their focus on niche markets, or extend into downstream sectors such as clean coal conversion and logistics services. Simultaneously, they should respond to the national policy of “expanding large-scale operations while phasing out small-scale ones, enhancing quality while eliminating substandard capacity” by proactively integrating into industrial upgrading. Competitiveness can be enhanced through methods like mergers with large enterprises and the introduction of new technologies. Additionally, when signing medium- to long-term contracts, they can utilize the new “premium for quality” clause to exchange quality for reasonable profits.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on December 26th, the benchmark price of thermal coal according to SunSirs was 740.00 RMB/ton, a decrease of 9.89% compared to the beginning of the month (821.25 RMB /ton).

Application of SunSirs Benchmark Pricing：

Traders can price spot and contract transactions based on the pricing principle of agreed markup and pricing formula (Transaction price=SunSirs price + Markup).

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