SunSirs: Shanghai Tin Prices Continue to Fluctuate at High Levels

In late November, driven by supply concerns stemming from geopolitical conflicts in the Democratic Republic of Congo and expectations of macroeconomic easing, the price of the main Shanghai tin futures contract surged to 323,700 RMB/ton, reaching a new high in nearly three and a half years. Following the formal signing of a peace agreement between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda on December 4th, market concerns about disruptions to African tin supply were temporarily alleviated. Looking ahead to 2026, the tin market is expected to show a marginally looser supply and weaker demand during the off-season. However, supported by low global inventories and a favorable macroeconomic environment, the price of the main Shanghai tin futures contract is likely to remain volatile at high levels.

Production in Myanmar's Wa State continues to recover, with the current mine reopening rate reaching two-thirds. It is expected that in the first quarter of 2026, my country's tin ore imports from Myanmar will rebound to an average of 1,000-1,500 metal tons per month, a significant increase compared to the fourth quarter of 2025. Indonesia's Timah company has significantly increased its production target for 2026, but the country's crackdown on illegal mining continues, leading to reduced supply from some small and medium-sized manufacturers due to raw material shortages. The approval of their RKAB (Annual Work Plan and Budget) is expected to be concentrated from the end of the first quarter to the beginning of the second quarter, and the pace of policy implementation still needs close monitoring. After the rainy season begins in the Democratic Republic of Congo, land transportation will be disrupted, and considering the impact of shipping schedules, related supply pressures are expected to become evident in the first quarter of 2026.

In the first quarter of 2026, domestic refined tin smelting operations are expected to remain stable, with raw material constraints easing marginally compared to 2025. Benefiting from increased tin ore imports from Myanmar, smelting plants in major producing areas such as Yunnan and Guangxi will experience reduced pressure on raw material inventories, maintaining a stable operating pace. Tin ingot supply is expected to see a slight year-on-year increase in the first quarter. Although the Spring Festival holiday may lead to temporary maintenance at some smelting plants, the impact on overall production will be limited. Regarding processing fees, despite the easing of raw material constraints, the improvement in ore supply has not yet fully materialized, and the processing fee for 40% grade tin concentrate is expected to remain at a low level of 11,000 RMB/ton.

In the first quarter of 2026, tin demand is expected to continue the pattern of "weakness in traditional sectors and limited growth in emerging sectors," providing insufficient overall support for tin prices.

Traditional consumer sectors are showing distinct characteristics of a low season, and the consumer electronics market has yet to see a substantial recovery. Affected by factors such as domestic inventory shortages and product cycle adjustments, global smartphone shipments are projected to decrease by 0.9% year-on-year in 2026. The domestic market, influenced by the Spring Festival holiday, is experiencing weak demand for end-product inventory, limiting the recovery of orders for solder manufacturers.

The home appliance industry is facing demand pressure following the phasing out of government subsidies, resulting in a slowdown in domestic sales growth.  While exports have benefited from emerging markets, this is insufficient to fully offset the weakness in domestic sales. At the same time, persistently high tin prices continue to suppress downstream purchasing intentions, and the spot market remains driven primarily by essential demand, with companies showing little willingness to replenish inventories.

Demand in the photovoltaic sector continues to be under pressure. Following the earlier surge in demand driven by pre-installation activities, module production decreased quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2026, resulting in weak demand for solder wire. Regarding emerging demand, while AI servers maintain a high growth rate of over 50%, their relatively small share in overall consumption makes it difficult to offset the weakness in traditional consumer sectors in the short term. Overall, the support for tin prices from the demand side has significantly weakened.

In the first quarter of 2026, the tin market is expected to maintain a pattern of "marginally looser supply and demand pressure during the off-season": the resumption of production in Wa State, Myanmar, and the release of capacity in Indonesia will lead to a sequential increase in supply, suppressing upward price movements; however, the macroeconomic liquidity support brought about by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, and the long-term inelasticity of supply from mines, will jointly provide support for prices. It is expected that the core trading range for the Shanghai tin futures contract in the first quarter of next year will be 280,000 to 330,000 RMB/ton. Going forward, key factors to monitor include the actual progress of production resumption in Myanmar, the pace of RKAB quota approvals in Indonesia, and the stability of the situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on December 18th, SunSirs’ benchmark price for tin was 325,530.00 RMB/ton, an increase of 8.29% compared to the beginning of the month (300,610.00 RMB/ton).

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Traders can price spot and contract transactions based on the pricing principle of agreed markup and pricing formula (Transaction price=SunSirs price + Markup).

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