SunSirs: China's November Export Growth Rebounds Beyond Expectations; Experts Project 4.4% Annual Export Growth for 2026

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, China's total import and export value of goods reached 41.21 trillion RMB in the first 11 months of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.6%. Exports reached 24.46 trillion RMB, up 6.2%, while imports totaled 16.75 trillion RMB, rising 0.2%. In November, China's goods trade growth accelerated, with total imports and exports reaching 3.9 trillion RMB, a 4.1% increase.

Multiple institutions analyzed that November's export growth rebounded beyond expectations.

Feng Lin, Executive Director of the Research and Development Department at Orient Gold Credit, stated that the unexpected rebound in November's export growth was primarily driven by factors including a lower base from the same period last year, an overall recovery in global trade during the month, and significantly accelerated growth in chip and automobile exports fueled by the global AI investment boom and domestic manufacturing transformation and upgrading.

Zhang Di, Chief Macro Analyst at China Galaxy Securities, noted that the rebound in November's export growth was supported by two factors: sustained global economic recovery and ongoing market diversification efforts. Global manufacturing continued its recovery trend in November, with the global manufacturing PMI at 50.5%, remaining above the boom-bust line. Additionally, the low base effect contributed to the improvement in the reading.

Export growth to the EU and Belt and Road partner countries accelerated notably in November. Zhang Di highlighted that ongoing market diversification provided corresponding support to November's export growth. Exports to the EU grew by 14.8%, exports to Africa surged by 27.6%, and exports to Latin America increased by 14.9%.

“China's overall exports to Belt and Road partner countries grew by 10.5% year-on-year in November, accelerating by 7.8 percentage points from the previous month, driven by significantly faster growth in exports to Africa and Latin America during the month,” Feng Lin stated.

The November export growth to Europe climbing to 14.8% may be linked to concentrated shipments for the Christmas season, as European retailers released their inventory replenishment demand in the fourth quarter, with orders concentrated for delivery in November. From January to November, China's cumulative export growth to Africa reached 26.3%, contributing 1.3 percentage points to overall export growth. This year, both Africa's local industrialization and China's investment in the region have jointly driven the high growth of China's exports to Africa.

Overall, China's exports have demonstrated strong resilience. Feng Lin noted that this resilience stems from the export sector's dominance by private enterprises, which exhibit exceptional operational flexibility and resilience under pressure. Following the ongoing trade diversion effect, China's export growth to the EU and Belt and Road partner countries has accelerated significantly. Exports to Belt and Road partner countries now account for over half of China's total exports, with cumulative growth reaching 10.5% in the first 11 months. Additionally, substantial global AI investment this year, coupled with China's manufacturing sector transformation and upgrading, has driven sustained rapid growth in exports of chips and new energy vehicles, providing crucial support to overall exports.

China's export growth has maintained strong resilience, primarily due to the “rush to export,” enhanced competitiveness of export goods, and the ongoing advancement of export market diversification. Meanwhile, favorable conditions such as the competitiveness of China's export products and export diversification continue to strengthen. It is projected that China's export growth for the full year of 2026 will be 4.4%.

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