SunSirs: Ethylene Glycol Prices Continued to Fall, and Expectations for Maintenance Shutdowns of Existing Coal-Based Plants Were Rising

Ethylene glycol prices shifted downward in November 

Ethylene glycol prices continued to fall in November, with the price center shifting downwards, but recently the decline began to stabilize. According to data from SunSirs, as of November 27, the average price of domestic oil-based ethylene glycol was 4,056.67 RMB/ton, a decrease of 3.89% compared to the average price of 4,220.83 RMB/ton on November 1.

Regarding ethylene glycol at ports, the basis for spot ethylene glycol contracts (minimum 500 tons) weakened significantly recently due to weak market sentiment and low willingness among traders to stockpile. As of November 27th, the intraday basis trading range for last week's contracts was +8 to +12; by the close of trading, the basis for next week's contracts was +9 to +11, the basis for December contracts was +16 to +18, and the basis for January contracts was +28 to +31.

Domestic spot prices for coal-based polyester grade ethylene glycol (bulk, tax included, self-pickup) were 3,770-3,880 RMB/ton for full truckload delivery.

Regarding international ethylene glycol, as of November 26th, recent cargo landed prices were negotiated at around 460-464 USD/ton.

The main reasons for the decline in ethylene glycol prices in November:

The price of ethylene glycol fell in November, primarily due to expectations of new domestic production capacity release and increased imports leading to port inventory buildup. Market transactions anticipated increased supply and decreased demand, coupled with concentrated port arrivals, which accelerated the price decline.

The main reasons for the recent stabilization of ethylene glycol prices were:

Regarding imports, there were expectations of reduced supply from Iran during the winter. On November 24, market rumors circulated that two ethylene glycol plants in Iran with a combined annual capacity of 3.3 million tons were shut down, and another four ethylene glycol plants with a combined annual capacity of 7.25 million tons were scheduled to shut down, with the shutdown expected in late November or early December.

On the domestic supply side, weekly ethylene glycol production declined compared to the previous week, with increased reductions in syngas-based production and slight reductions in integrated production. Furthermore, there are planned maintenance shutdowns for ethylene-based plants. Recent expectations of maintenance shutdowns for existing coal-based plants increased, suggesting that ethylene glycol prices are likely to stabilize.

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