SunSirs: Brazilian Soybean Export Forecast Revised Upwards, Impacting the Market

ANEC stated on Tuesday that Brazil's soybean exports in November will reach 4.26 million tons, higher than the 3.772 million tons estimated a week earlier. If this forecast materializes, it will be an 82% increase compared to 2.339 million tons in November last year. In October, Brazil's soybean exports totaled 6.398 million tons, a 44.3% increase compared to 4.435 million tons in the same period last year.

The article shows that ANEC predicts Brazil's November soybean exports will reach 4.26 million tons, an 82% year-on-year increase, revised upwards from the previous estimate. Meanwhile, October exports increased by 44.3% year-on-year. This indicates a significant increase in global soybean supply. The surge in supply from Brazil, a major exporter, will depress spot prices, creating downward pressure. Although not directly related to futures data, the expectation of oversupply may suppress price rebounds.

Increased soybean supply may lead to increased crushing volumes, resulting in a corresponding increase in soybean meal supply as a byproduct, which will also be bearish for spot prices. Based on soybean meal futures data (e.g., the settlement price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange 2601 contract was 3053 RMB/ton, a change of -5), the current market is trending downwards. Expectations of increased export supply will further amplify the downside risk to futures prices, potentially intensifying short-selling pressure.

Increased soybean exports imply potential increases in crushing capacity, which may lead to an increase in soybean oil supply, negatively impacting spot prices. Demand lacks significant support, and the expectation of oversupply will further depress prices. Although there is no futures data available, the spot market is clearly affected by increased raw material soybean supply.

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