SunSirs: US Crude Oil Inventories Rise, Gasoline and Distillate Fuel Inventories Decline

A preliminary survey released on Tuesday, November 11th, indicated that US crude oil inventories are expected to increase last week, while gasoline and distillate fuel inventories are expected to decline. The average estimate from five surveyed analysts is that US crude oil inventories are expected to increase by approximately 1.2 million barrels in the week ending November 7th. Distillate fuel inventories, including diesel and heating oil, are projected to decline by approximately 2.7 million barrels last week; gasoline inventories are projected to decline by approximately 2.6 million barrels.

The article points out that the expected increase of approximately 1.2 million barrels in US crude oil inventories last week indicates increased oversupply pressure, which is bearish for spot prices. The increase in inventories reflects weak demand or increased supply, which may suppress short-term prices. Considering the current market supply and demand balance, a slight increase in inventories is generally considered a bearish factor.

The article mentions that gasoline inventories are expected to decline by approximately 2.6 million barrels, indicating strong consumer demand or reduced supply, which is significantly bullish for spot prices. A large decrease in inventories may be due to seasonally increased demand or decreased refinery output, driving prices upward. Based on historical data, this magnitude is considered a significant bullish factor.

The article mentions that distillate fuel oil (including diesel and heating oil) inventories are expected to decline by approximately 2.7 million barrels, reflecting strong industrial or heating demand, which is a significant positive for spot prices. The substantial decline in inventories may be driven by winter consumption, strengthening price support. Based on supply and demand analysis, this change constitutes a major positive factor.

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