SunSirs: The Ethanol Market Experienced a Step by Step Declined in October

Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, from October 1st to 31st, the average price of domestic ethanol producers fell slightly from 5,560 RMB/ton to 5,304 RMB/ton, a decrease of 4.61% during the period and a year-on-year decrease of 4.85%.

In early October, the price of raw corn fell significantly. After the holiday, some plants in certain regions increased their operating rates, and downstream restocking for immediate needs led to low prices and a significant drop in domestic ethanol prices. In mid-October, the ethanol market remained weak, while the price of raw corn continued to rise, improving cost support. However, overall supply continued to increase, and downstream restocking was mainly for immediate needs, depleting previous inventories. In late October, supply increased, factories maintained normal operations, downstream consumption was low, transactions were limited, and prices fell again.

Analysis review

On the cost side, corn prices continued their steady to slightly stronger trend. Morning deliveries to Shandong deep-processing enterprises remained low, easing the previous pressure on wet corn supply, allowing enterprises to adjust prices flexibly according to their own circumstances. Prices in Henan also rose slightly. Prices at Hebei deep-processing enterprises saw a narrow decline, while prices at the grassroots level remained stable. Ethanol costs were negative for the market.

On the supply side, Hongzhan Plant 4 and Wanli Plant were operating at full capacity, COFCO Zhaodong fuel ethanol production had resumed, Jilin Fukang Plant's Lines 3 and 4 are in operation, and Guotou Jidong, Tieling, and Hailun Plants were operating normally. Previously maintained maintenance units were gradually resuming operations. The ethanol supply was negative for the market.

On the demand side, most sellers were actively shipping their goods, while downstream buyers were cautiously observing the market and replenishing their stocks only as needed. Overall, the trading atmosphere was moderate. The demand for ethanol was negative for its market.

Market Forecast:

With stable plant operations and limited demand, prices remained stable to slightly weaker. According to analysts at SunSirs, the ethanol market is expected to consolidate with a slightly weaker bias in the short term.

If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.