SunSirs: Ethanol Market Prices Fluctuated Slightly

Price trend:

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, from November 10th to 14th, the domestic ethanol price was adjusted to 5,268 RMB/ton, a decrease of 4.20% month-on-month and 4.55% year-on-year. The domestic ethanol price remained weak and stable, with average transaction volume and a high degree of bearish sentiment in the market.

Market Analysis

On the cost side, corn prices had risen slightly, with major factories primarily focused on absorbing previously low-priced corn. The positive factors for ethanol production costs have weakened.

On the supply side, Northeast China performed exceptionally well, with an overall operating rate as high as 92.43%, significantly higher than the national average. Specifically, major large enterprises in Heilongjiang Province continued to operate at overcapacity, and other factories in the region that had resumed operations were also basically operating at full capacity, jointly driving up the overall operating load in Northeast China. Several previously shut-down enterprises recently resumed production, creating a slightly bearish factor on the ethanol supply side..

On the demand side, downstream chemical demand, taking ethyl acetate as an example, was increasing. Anhui Huayi's plant had resumed production, which led to a short-term increase in operating rates. Furthermore, with cost reductions resulting in profits for factories, their production incentives were high, leading to increased ethanol consumption. Overall, the demand of ethanol provided favorable factors for the market.

Market Forecast:

Plant operations were stable, demand was limited, and prices were stable to slightly weaker. According to analysts at SunSirs, the ethanol market is expected to be weaker in the short term.

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