SunSirs: China Coke Market Is Expected to Be Strong, with a Prices Increase in October

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of October 31, 2025, the average price was 1,426 RMB/ton. In October 2025, the domestic coke market showed a stable, moderate, and strong operating trend, with prices overall rising and trending.

In terms of price: In October, the price of coke was supported by the cost of coking coal and the demand for steel mills to replenish inventory, with a cumulative increase of 100-110 RMB/ton. Taking Shanxi quasi first grade dry quenched coke as an example, its price broke through the 1,600 RMB/ton mark in October. The coke market successfully experienced two rounds of price increases in October, with strong cost support. Due to stricter coal mine safety and environmental inspections, the supply of coke in the coking coal market remained tight, and prices continued to strengthen, which directly increased the cost of coal entering the furnace for coking enterprises and provided significant bottom support for coke prices. ‌

Supply side: Due to environmental restrictions and profit contraction, the supply side has tightened slightly, and the operating rate of coking plants continues to decline, resulting in a slight contraction in coke supply. ‌‌

On the demand side: Strong demand supports short-term prices. Although the demand for steel at the end is weak, the operating rate of steel mills' blast furnaces remains high, and there is a rigid demand for coke replenishment. After the National Day holiday, the available days of coke inventory in steel mills decreased, further strengthening the demand for replenishment. ‌‌

On the cost side: The cost price of coke is mainly affected by factors such as the price of raw coking coal, the production status of coking plants, and the demand of downstream steel mills. In October, due to factors such as coal mine shutdowns during the National Day holiday, post holiday overproduction inspections, and the entry of central safety production inspection teams, the supply of coking coal tightened and prices continued to rise. The price of S<1 main coking coal in Lvliang, Shanxi has risen by 150 RMB/ton since the low point in September, while the price of coke has increased by 100-130 RMB/ton. The overall price of coke has also shown an upward trend.

According to the coke analyst from SunSirs, the market generally expects a trend of first strong and then weak in November. In early November, with tight supply of coking coal and the support of steel mills' demand, coke prices are expected to remain stable, medium, and strong. However, as steel demand enters the seasonal off-season in mid November, the pressure on steel mills' profits will intensify, which may trigger a wave of production cuts. At that time, coke prices will be under pressure and decline.

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