SunSirs: October's Peak Season Was Weak, and Stainless Steel Prices Fell

Price trend

According to data from SunSirs, stainless steel prices fell slightly in October. At the end of October, the spot price of stainless steel was 11,866.67 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.07% from the beginning of the month (12,117.14 RMB/ton) and a year-on-year decrease of 6.77%.

According to a comparison of stainless steel annual prices over the past five years by SunSirs, stainless steel prices generally fell in November. 

Analysis review

Raw material

Ferronickel: In October, the domestic ferronickel market exhibited a basic pattern of "strong external demand and weak domestic demand." Indonesia's strengthened regulation of nickel ore mines kept nickel ore premiums at a high level of $24-26/ton, directly increasing the import cost of ferronickel and providing some support for prices. However, the continued release of increased supply resulted in insufficient upward momentum for ferronickel prices overall.

Ferrochrome: The ferrochrome market in October exhibited a loose supply situation, in stark contrast to the "weak and stable" trend in ferronickel. According to market data, China's imports of high-carbon ferrochrome reached 223,800 tons in September, a significant increase of 40.7% month-on-month, further exacerbating the loose supply situation in the market.

Supply side:

In October, the pressure on domestic stainless steel supply increased rather than decreased. The planned crude steel production of stainless steel mills in October 2025 reached 3.4472 million tons, a slight increase of 0.6% month-on-month and 4.75% year-on-year. This means that stainless steel producers did not reduce production due to weak demand during the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October", but instead maintained a high level of operating enthusiasm.

Demand side:

The stainless steel market experienced a weak peak season overall, with the traditional "Silver October" sales surge failing to materialize. In the automotive sector, cumulative sales from January to August increased by 12.6% year-on-year, roughly the same growth rate as from January to July, indicating that growth momentum had not accelerated. In the home appliance industry, orders rebounded slightly overall. Influenced by the National Day holiday and the "Double Eleven" shopping festival, domestic and international sales orders maintained positive growth, increasing the industry's demand for steel raw materials, but the overall market sentiment was only moderate.

Inventory side:

The total social inventory of stainless steel in major markets across the country has seen its fourth consecutive decline, falling to 987,100 tons in the week ending September 18. This orderly release of inventory helped alleviate pressure on businesses.

Stainless steel inventories declined slightly in October. At the end of the month, total stainless steel inventories stood at 1.027 million tons, a 2.5% decrease from the previous week.

Market outlook

In summary, the stainless steel market in October was characterized by "high supply, weak demand, and easing cost support." On the raw material side, ferronickel prices remained weak and stable, while ferrochrome supply was ample, limiting cost support. Supply remained at high levels, while the expected peak season of October failed to materialize, leading to a significant supply-demand imbalance. Although inventory decreased slightly, overall pressure remained. With the arrival of the traditional off-season in November, the stainless steel market is expected to maintain a range-bound, slightly weaker trend in November.

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