SunSirs: China Corrugated Paper Market Gains Expand, Short-term Upward Trend Maintained

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of corrugated paper maintained an upward trend last week, and the upward momentum continued to expand. On October 24, 2025, the average ex factory price of 140g corrugated paper was 2,930 RMB/ton, an increase of 4.05% compared to the average price on October 19.

In terms of upstream raw materials: Last week, the price of waste paper in Zhejiang continued to rise, and most paper mills in China have raised their prices from south to north. On October 24, 2025, the average purchase price of A-grade waste yellow cardboard in Zhejiang was 1,814 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.31% compared to the average price on October 19. The current market supply and demand are biased towards a pattern of supply being less than demand. Due to flat domestic consumption, the overall amount of waste yellow cardboard recycling is average, and some packaging stations are reluctant to sell, resulting in a relatively low supply of waste yellow cardboard. The intention of paper mills to start production is good, and confidence in the finished paper market has been restored. Some paper mills have increased their inventory reserves of waste paper, which has led to an expansion in demand for waste yellow board paper. This has caused the price of waste paper to continue to rise and reach a new year high.

Supply side: Due to the tight supply of raw materials such as domestic waste paper and imported recycled fiber pulp, as well as some paper companies arranging downtime for maintenance, the supply of corrugated paper is relatively tight. In addition, most large-scale paper companies have raised the price of corrugated paper in multiple bases, which has driven small and medium-sized enterprises in the market to follow suit and increase prices. Paper companies in many regions have a strong willingness to raise prices.

In terms of demand: Currently, downstream demand support is limited, and the market is still in a partially stocked state due to the rule of buying up rather than buying down. Therefore, the trading atmosphere is still acceptable. ‌

The paper analyst from SunSirs believes that the continuous rise in corrugated paper prices is mainly driven by the tight supply of waste paper on the cost side and high prices. In addition, the frequent price increase letters from leading paper mills have raised the market's bullish sentiment, and it is expected that corrugated paper prices will maintain an upward trend in the short term.

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