SunSirs: The Impact of China Commodity Production Data in September

The National Bureau of Statistics announced that in September, the raw coal production of industrial enterprises above designated size was 410 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%; Crude oil production reached 17.77 million tons, an increase of 4.1%; The natural gas production was 21.2 billion cubic meters, an increase of 9.4%. The country produced 73.49 million tons of crude steel and 66.05 million tons of pig iron, both hitting new lows since December 2023.

In September, the production of industrial raw coal above designated size was 410 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%. The decrease in supply may support the upward trend of spot prices. The demand side is relatively stable, and the market supply is tight, which is favorable for the coal spot market.

The crude oil production in September was 17.77 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, and the increase in supply may suppress spot prices. The increase in production has eased market tension, which is bearish on the trend of crude oil spot prices, and prices may face downward pressure.

The LNG production in September was 21.2 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, and the significant increase in supply was bearish on spot prices. The increase in production can alleviate the supply-demand gap, or lead to pressure on gas prices, and strengthen market bearish factors.

The crude steel production of 73.49 million tons and the pig iron production of 66.05 million tons both hit a new low since December 2023, and the decrease in supply has benefited steel prices. Combined with futures data, the main contract price of rebar has risen (such as the closing price of contract 2603 at 3,107 RMB/ton, up 13 RMB/ton), and the holding amount has increased (the holding amount of contract 2603 has changed by 6,788 RMB/ton), indicating the strengthening of long positions. It is expected that both spot and futures prices will be supported, and the positive trend is obvious.

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