SunSirs: Africa and South America to Lead Crude Oil Production Growth in 2026

A recent 2026 crude oil industry report released by S&P Global CERA data indicates that eight major oilfield development projects scheduled for production globally will add over 450,000 barrels per day to the crude oil market by 2026. Africa and South America emerge as the primary drivers, while the United States and the Middle East contribute limited increases. New capacity is concentrated in non-OPEC+ nations, primarily through offshore and deepwater projects.

Uganda claims two key titles for 2026: “Largest New Oil Field” and “Largest Market Supply Increase,” both from the Lake Albert Basin's Tilanga and Kingfisher projects, scheduled for October commissioning. The Tirenga project, operated by France's TotalEnergies, represents the single largest annual production increase, with an initial output of nearly 149,000 barrels per day. It encompasses six onshore oil fields with estimated recoverable reserves of 836 million barrels. The Kingfisher project, operated by CNOOC, will start with an initial daily output of 27,000 barrels, rising to a peak of nearly 40,000 barrels per day by 2027. It holds recoverable reserves exceeding 214 million barrels, with a completion rate reaching 74% by November 2025. Both projects have a minimum production lifespan of 20 years, with cumulative production projected to reach 1.4 billion barrels and a combined peak daily output of 230,000 barrels.

However, Uganda's project heavily relies on the 1,443-kilometer East African Crude Oil Pipeline for exports. This pipeline transports Ugandan crude to Tanzania for export, with current completion at 75%. Progress has been delayed by environmental opposition, with operations expected to commence in July 2026. This pipeline remains the key constraint on the project's capacity realization.

South America's Guyana and Brazil have emerged as the world's second-largest incremental oil region through deepwater field projects. Guyana's Ultra-Deepwater Ula field ranks second on the list of largest new oil fields for 2026. Operated by ExxonMobil, it is the fifth oil and gas asset developed in the Stabroek block, with production scheduled to commence in July. This block ranks among the world's largest offshore oil and gas fields, currently producing approximately 900,000 barrels per day. The Hura field holds estimated recoverable reserves of 825 million barrels, with initial production of 136,000 barrels per day. Output is projected to rise to 215,000 barrels per day by 2027, propelling Guyana from South America's fifth-largest oil producer into the top three.

Brazil is simultaneously advancing the Buzios 8 project, which will add 180,000 barrels per day of processing capacity for ultra-deepwater subsalt oil and gas fields using the P-79 Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) unit. Initial daily production stands at 23,700 barrels, with peak output exceeding 152,000 barrels per day by 2028. Petrobras is collaborating with CNOOC to plan six additional FPSOs for this field, expected to deliver approximately 1.4 million barrels per day of new capacity by 2030, solidifying Brazil's deepwater oil and gas production advantage.

In the Middle East, only Iraq has a project included. Its East Baghdad Shallow Water field plans to expand production by mid-2026, adding 46,500 barrels per day. Following the completion of southern field expansions, total output will reach 120,000 barrels per day by 2027, primarily consisting of light to medium crude oil. However, its share of regional incremental production remains relatively low.

North American crude growth is concentrated in the United States. Alaska's Picca Field stands as the region's most anticipated onshore oil and gas asset. Jointly developed by Santos and Repsol in the North Slope Basin, it includes crude processing facilities and drilling sites. Initial production of 41,000 barrels per day is expected by late 2026, with peak output reaching 76,000 barrels per day. Estimated recoverable reserves stand at 425 million barrels. Two deepwater projects in the Gulf of Mexico commenced production in the first half of the year, collectively adding 39,000 barrels per day: Phase II of the Buckskin field began operations in March, contributing 18,600 barrels per day with recoverable reserves of 149 million barrels; the Monument field started production in July, yielding over 20,000 barrels per day with recoverable reserves of 150 million barrels.

Regarding the impact of new production on the oil market, Saudi analyst Abdulaziz Al-Mukbir noted that while numerous upstream projects are slated for 2026, the reliability and delivery capacity of incremental production face multiple risks including material supply, technology, and project execution. Factors such as environmental disputes and infrastructure delays could transform nominal new capacity into intermittent supply or delayed deployment. Nevertheless, constrained by demand, the new capacity will still exacerbate expectations of oversupply in the 2026 crude oil market, adding uncertainty to global oil price trends.

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