SunSirs: Energy Industries Bulk Commodity Intelligence (October 21, 2025)

Macroeconomics

1. [GDP] National Bureau of Statistics: Preliminary calculations show that GDP in the first three quarters reached 101,503.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.2% at constant prices. By industry, the added value of the primary industry reached 5,806.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%; the added value of the secondary industry reached 36,402.0 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%; and the added value of the tertiary industry reached 59,295.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. By quarter, GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, 5.2% in the second quarter, and 4.8% in the third quarter. Quarter-on-quarter, GDP grew by 1.1% in the third quarter.

2. [Industrial Capacity Utilization] National Bureau of Statistics: In the third quarter of 2025, the national capacity utilization rate of industrial enterprises above designated size was 74.6%, up 0.6 percentage points from the second quarter and down 0.5 percentage points from the same period last year. Looking at the three major sectors, by the third quarter of 2025, the mining industry's capacity utilization rate is projected to be 72.5%; the manufacturing industry's capacity utilization rate is 74.8%; and the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry's capacity utilization rate is 74.3%.

3. [US-Australia Agreement] US President Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese signed an agreement on rare earth and critical minerals at the White House on Monday. As part of the agreement, both sides agreed to reduce approval processes for mining, processing facilities, and related operations to increase production of rare earth and critical minerals. The White House statement stated that the US and Australian governments plan to jointly invest over $3 billion in critical mineral projects over the next six months, with an estimated recoverable resource value of $53 billion.

Energy

1. [Crude Oil] On October 20, international crude oil futures closed slightly lower. The December contract for US WTI crude oil futures settled at $57.02 per barrel, down $0.13, or 0.2%. Brent crude oil futures for December delivery settled at $61.01 a barrel, down $0.28, or 0.5%.

2. [Crude Oil] On October 20, a preliminary survey showed that U.S. crude oil inventories were estimated to have increased last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories likely declined. Based on the average estimate of five surveyed institutions, U.S. crude oil inventories are expected to have increased by approximately 1.5 million barrels in the week ending October 17. Distillate inventories, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by approximately 1.9 million barrels last week, while gasoline inventories likely fell by around 1.3 million barrels.

3. [Crude Oil] On October 20, crude oil exports from Iraq's semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan reached 205,000 barrels per day.

4. [LNG] EU member states supported a proposal to phase out Russian natural gas imports by January 2028. Starting January 1, 2026, the EU prohibits parties from signing new natural gas import contracts with Russia. Existing short-term contracts will run until June 17, 2026, while long-term contracts will expire before January 1, 2028.

5. [Crude Oil] The Ministry of Commerce announced that the permitted import volume of crude oil for non-state-owned trade in 2026 is 257 million tons.

6. [Crude Oil] National Bureau of Statistics: In September, industrial crude oil production above designated size was 17.77 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.1%, with the growth rate accelerating by 1.7 percentage points from August; the average daily output was 592,000 tons. From January to September, industrial crude oil production above designated size was 162.63 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%.

7. [Crude Oil] National Bureau of Statistics: In September, industrial crude oil processing volume above designated size was 62.69 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, with an average daily processing volume of 2.09 million tons. From January to September, industrial crude oil processing volume above designated size was 550.81 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%.

8. [Raw Coal] National Bureau of Statistics: In September, industrial raw coal production above designated size reached 410 million tons, down 1.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points from August; the average daily output was 13.72 million tons. From January to September, industrial raw coal production above designated size reached 3.57 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%.

9. [LNG] National Bureau of Statistics: In September, industrial natural gas production above designated size reached 21.2 billion cubic meters, up 9.4% year-on-year, with the growth rate accelerating by 3.5 percentage points from August; the average daily output was 710 million cubic meters. From January to September, industrial natural gas production above designated size reached 194.9 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%.

10. [LPG] According to customs data, my country's LPG imports in September 2025 were 3.0427 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 6.98%. Imports of liquefied propane reached 2.3709 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.42%, while imports of liquefied butane reached 671,800 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.13%. In September, exports of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) reached 82,800 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.17%. Exports of liquefied propane reached 33,400 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 9.97%, while exports of liquefied butane reached 49,400 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.90%.

11. [LPG] On October 20, Qingdao Refining and Chemical Industry lowered the price of civilian liquefied petroleum gas by 200 RMB/ton to 4,100 RMB/ton compared to the previous week. The plant is operating normally, producing approximately 1,000 tons per day, and inventories are under control.

12. [Coking Coal] On October 20, the online auction price of coking coal in the Luliang market rose. The starting price of high-sulfur coking coal A10.5, S2.8, and G85 at the weekend was 1,050 RMB/ton, and the average transaction price was 1,180 RMB/ton, up 107 RMB/ton from the previous period on October 13; the offline quotation of medium-sulfur lean clean coal A9.5, S1.5, and G70 was adjusted to 1,200 RMB/ton, a total increase of 40 RMB/ton. The price is the ex-factory price in cash including tax.

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