SunSirs: The Growth of China Automobile Exports Boosts Rubber Demand

According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in September 2025, China exported 760,000 vehicles (including chassis), a year-on-year increase of 24.3%. From January to September 2025, the export of automobiles (including chassis) reached 5.68 million units, a year-on-year increase of 21.0%.

In September 2025, automobile exports increased by 24.3% year-on-year, with a cumulative growth of 21.0% from January to September, indicating a strong recovery in the automobile manufacturing industry, which will drive up demand for butyl rubber (used for automotive seals, inner tubes, and other components). The expected increase in demand will boost spot prices, with significant positive factors, but the impact is mild and not immediate.

The significant increase in automobile exports directly increases the demand for tire manufacturing, and styrene butadiene rubber as the main tire material will benefit. The expectation of demand expansion supports the rise in spot prices, with the automotive industry accounting for about 70% of its consumption, and a growth of 21-24% indicating sustained bullish momentum, but the supply-demand balance has not changed significantly.

The export of automobiles increased by over 21%, boosting demand for nitrile rubber (used for oil pipes and oil resistant components). The increase in demand will push up spot prices, and the recovery of the automotive industry chain is expected to strengthen positive expectations, but the impact is indirect and not exclusively driven.

The strong growth of automobile exports has led to an increase in demand for butadiene rubber as the core material of tires. Combined with the butadiene rubber futures market (such as the settlement price of contract 2601 at 10,930 RMB/ton, up or down+190), the strengthening of raw material prices indicates cost support, and the expansion of automobile demand further benefits spot and futures prices, but there are fluctuations in some contract holdings in the market.

The year-on-year growth of automobile exports is 21-24%, and the increase in tire demand will directly push up the spot price of natural rubber. The automobile industry accounts for over 60% of global consumption.

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