SunSirs: The Ethanol Market Was Weakly Consolidating

Price trend

According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, domestic ethanol prices were at 5,550 RMB/ton from October 13 to 17, down 1.46% month-over-month and 0.54% year-over-year. This was driven by a significant drop in the price of raw corn, as well as increased plant operations in some regions after the holiday. This led to downstream demand for replenishment and low transaction prices, resulting in a significant decline in domestic ethanol prices. 

Analysis review

On the cost side, corn prices continued to weaken overall. Rainy weather returned to many parts of North China, halting harvests at most local grain stations and resulting in sluggish market activity. Ethanol costs were also negatively impacted by factors.

On the supply side, Dongfeng Hualiang's plant had resumed production, as had Fukang's third production line. Zhongke Gelin's plant resumed production mid-holiday. Sichuan Hongzhan's plant resumed production. Xintiande and Jinyuan's plants had also resumed production. Several previously suspended companies recently resumed production as by-products, which had negatively impacted the ethanol supply.

On the demand side, downstream companies mainly purchase on demand, and the demand side of ethanol was affected by negative factors.

Market outlook

Supply was increasing, but demand neededto recover. Ethanol analysts at SunSirs predict that the ethanol market will remain weak in the short term.

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