SunSirs: Lithium Carbonate Is Expected to Fluctuate Slightly in October

Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, lithium carbonate has shown a slight fluctuation recently. As of October 10, the SunSirs benchmark price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 73,166 RMB/ton, down 1.26% from the previous month and 10.1% from the previous year; the SunSirs benchmark price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 71,366 RMB/ton, down 0.95% from the previous month and 9.13% from the previous year.

Supply side: Mine disturbances weakened

In July, industry insiders circulated a notice from the Natural Resources Bureau of Yichun City, Jiangxi Province. The notice required eight local lithium mining companies to complete reserve verification reports for mineral type changes by September 30th, scientifically and rationally determining their primary mineral types for mining. This announcement caused the spot price of lithium carbonate to soar from 60,000 to 80,000 RMB/ton, before the market cooled and returned to around 70,000 yuan. Recently, news has emerged that all eight lithium mining companies submitted their reserve verification reports for the mineral type changes, mitigating the impact of mining operations on supply.

Demand side: Energy storage dominated growth, and demand resilience was highlighted

Energy storage became the core engine of demand in October. The order delivery cycle of leading energy storage battery companies (CATL, BYD, etc.) was extended to 45 days. The production scheduling rate in September remained above 95%, and the output of positive electrode material factories is expected to continue the month-on-month upward trend.

Demand for power batteries was steadily improving

New energy passenger vehicle sales reached 1.123 million units, a year-on-year increase of 50.9%, with a penetration rate of 53.3%. Although the decline in European and American subsidies has led to a slowdown in export order growth, peak season demand in the domestic market has supported a steady increase in power battery installations, demonstrating continued demand resilience.

Inventories remained high

As of the end of September, total lithium carbonate inventory reached 136,800 tons, including 33,500 tons from upstream, 60,900 tons from downstream, and 42,400 tons from other sectors. The suppressive effect of high inventory on prices had not yet fully subsided. With supply and demand aligning in October, this could lead to a buildup of inventory, limiting price growth.

Market outlook

SunSirs’ lithium carbonate data analysts believe that the lithium carbonate market in October will be in a state of balance between "marginal improvement in supply and demand" and "high inventory pressure", and prices may fluctuate slightly. Specific market changes still need to be monitored.

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