SunSirs: High Supply and Cost Support Led to a Slight Upward Trend in the Silicomanganese Market

Price trend

Silicomanganese futures prices fluctuated upward this month, with the spot market following the futures market's wide range of fluctuations. On the cost side, sentiment in the manganese ore market increased, with trading volumes gradually increasing. Following a 50 RMB/ton price drop for chemical coke, expectations of further price increases are high. On the demand side, hot metal production remained high, with steel mill tenders increasing slightly month-over-month. Data from the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System indicates that at the end of this month, market quotes for silicomanganese (FeMN68Si18) in Ningxia were around 5,650-5,750 RMB/ton, with an average price of 5,700 RMB/ton, a 1.10% increase from the beginning of the month.

Factors Affecting

Silicomanganese production was running at a high level

There was little fluctuation in the production of factories in Inner Mongolia this month. Some factories continued to undergo maintenance, and some new production capacity will be put into production next month. There was a slight fluctuation in the start-up of factories in Ningxia, and some factories reduced production for maintenance. A large factory in Guizhou stopped production, and other factories also had maintenance, resulting in a decrease in output. Some factories in Guangxi had plans to resume production in the near future, and it is expected that output will increase in the future. The start-up of factories in Yunnan continued to remain at a high level, and there were no other fluctuations.

According to the survey, silicomanganese (187 companies) produced 909,300 tons in August, a 10.9% increase from July and a 7.4% increase from the same period last year. September production is expected to remain stable at a high level. In the week of September 26, the operating rate of 187 independent silicomanganese companies nationwide was 44.18%, a 1.5% decrease from the previous month. The average daily output was 206,400 tons, a decrease of 2,300 tons from the previous month.

As alloy production continued to climb to high levels recently, alloy mill inventories had begun to gradually increase. According to incomplete statistics, as of September 26, the national inventory of silicomanganese enterprises was 233,800 tons, a month-on-month increase of 34,900 tons. This includes Inner Mongolia with 41,300 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1,500 tons; Ningxia with 169,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 30,600 tons; Guangxi with 8,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1,500 tons; Guizhou with 5,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 500 tons; Shanxi, Gansu, and Shaanxi with 4,500 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4,300 tons; and Sichuan, Yunnan, and Chongqing with 6,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 500 tons.

In terms of downstream inventory, steel mills remained cautious about replenishing raw materials. Coupled with the current low steel profit margins, the available days of silicomanganese had increased slightly, but the total amount remained low. Low inventory levels are expected to continue in October.

Manganese ore prices rose

Since September, global manganese ore shipments have averaged approximately 1.1 million tons per week, a 14.6% increase from the August average of 960,000 tons. This has led to a slight increase in domestic port manganese ore inventories month-on-month. However, year-on-year, total port inventories were around 4.272 million tons, down approximately 1.5 million tons from the same period last year. As of September 28, total port inventories were at a recent low, providing strong support for the performance of manganese ore spot prices.

The port manganese ore market was slightly stable, with some mineral resources in short supply. The market was still holding prices, but as downstream companies have gradually completed their inventory preparations, it is not enough to significantly drive price fluctuations. Market prices continued to adjust steadily. Data shows that as of September 28, the price of Australian manganese ore in Tianjin Port was 40-41.5 RMB/ton, semi-carbonate was 34-35 RMB/ton, and Gabon lump was 40-40.5 RMB/ton; at Qinzhou Port, the price of Australian manganese ore was 40-41 RMB/ton, semi-carbonate was 36.5-37 RMB/ton, and Gabon lump was 40.5 RMB/ton.

On the international market, Comiluo announced its November 2025 shipping price for manganese ore to China, with Gabon lump priced at $4.35/ton, up $0.08/ton from the previous round. CML (Consolidated Mining) announced its November 2025 price for manganese ore to China, with Australian manganese ore at $4.65/tonn, up $0.08/ton from the previous round. South 32 announced its November 2025 price for manganese ore to China, with South African semi-carbonate manganese ore at $4.15/ton, up $0.05/ton from the previous round, and Australian manganese ore at $4.55/ton, up $0.05/ton from the previous round.

Insufficient growth momentum for molten iron production

Steel mills' spot profits continued to decline, with blast furnaces nearing breakeven and electric furnaces also experiencing small losses. Hot metal production rebounded after the military parade, but continued growth lacks momentum. According to data from China Steel Union, the average daily pig iron output of 247 sampled steel mills reached 2.4236 million tons in the week ending September 26, a month-on-month increase of 13,400 tons. By mid-September 2025, the average daily crude steel output of key steel mills was 2.073 million tons, a 0.6% decrease from the previous ten-day period and a 4.3% increase from the previous ten-day period.

In terms of bidding on behalf of steel mills, a large steel mill in Hebei Province bid 3,151 tons of ferrosilicon in September, an increase of 316 tons from August, and 17,000 tons of silicomanganese, an increase of 900 tons from August.

After the August price drop, alloy supply ended its previous upward trend and shifted to a period of high volatility. Demand remained high, but due to the temporary slowdown in steel inventory reduction and the continued compression of steel profits, further demand growth is limited and faces downside risks.

Market outlook

Overall, silicomanganese supply remained high, and while demand is also high in the short term, further growth is limited and subject to downside risks. On the cost side, electricity prices remained firm, and manganese ore inventories were significantly lower than in previous years, providing some support for alloy prices. SunSirs analysts predict that silicomanganese prices may continue to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term.

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