SunSirs: There Was an Increasing Sentiment Among Ferrosilicon Producers to Hold Back on Sales and Push for Higher Prices

Price trend:

Last week, the relatively high production costs of ferrosilicon enterprises, coupled with news of production cuts and shutdowns in some regions, led to a reduction in supply. Some bidding prices were raised compared to last month, and the upcoming steel tenders in January are expected to release further demand, all of which provided favorable support to the market. Some industry players showed increased reluctance to sell and held firm on prices, with some quotes tentatively rising. Low-priced sources were noticeably difficult to find in the market. According to SunSirs' commodity price analysis system, on December 26th, the market price of ferrosilicon (grade: FeSi75～B; particle size/mm: natural lump) in the Ningxia region was 5,200-5,350 RMB/ton, with an average market price of 5,257 RMB/ton, a 0.27% increase compared to Monday.

Influencing factors

Raw Material Semi-Coke Market:

Last week, the national semi-coke market operated weakly. Downstream mainstream calcium carbide enterprises lowered their semi-coke purchase prices by 30-35 RMB/ton, and the market gradually implemented the price reduction. As of December 26th, the price of medium-sized semi-coke in the Shenmu market was 800-820 RMB/ton, small-sized semi-coke was 750-780 RMB/ton, and coke fines were 510-570 RMB/ton; in the Fugu market, medium-sized semi-coke was 790-850 RMB/ton, small-sized semi-coke was 750-870 RMB/ton, and coke fines were 510-620 RMB/ton; the mainstream price of coke fines in the Zhongwei market was 560 RMB/ton; and mixed semi-coke in the Shizuishan market was 530 RMB/ton. Overall, the semi-coke market was characterized by strong supply and weak demand. As of December 26, negative factors still dominated, and prices lacked significant advantages. However, due to high semi-coke production costs and the decline in the price of the byproduct medium-temperature coal tar, enterprises were experiencing increased losses, leading some to reduce production. Once market inventory is reduced to a certain level, low-priced sources will gradually decrease, and prices may find some support.

Demand Situation

As the off-season deepens, there is limited room for further improvement in the apparent demand for rebar and hot-rolled coils. With the seasonal weakening of demand, the pressure on steel inventories may further accumulate. As the market approaches the end of the year, traders are facing significant financial pressure, and downstream purchases are decreasing, resulting in an overall unfavorable market situation. Overseas export performance was relatively good last month. According to customs data, in November 2025, China's exports of ferrosilicon (Si>55%) amounted to 28,929.399 tons, a month-on-month increase of 18.76% and a year-on-year increase of 11.02%. The export price for 72% ferrosilicon was FOB $1,000-1,040/ton; and for 75% ferrosilicon, it was FOB $1,050-1,090/ton.

Market Outlook

Last week, with futures prices fluctuating moderately, market sentiment remained stable, although some downstream buyers maintained a cautious attitude. Short-term demand is still supported by steel mill tenders, but consumption may continue to decline in the future; manufacturers are maintaining a slow pace of inventory reduction, and apparent demand has slightly decreased, but the production is still expected to decline. In terms of price, the domestic ferrosilicon spot market may fluctuate at a low level in the short term, and a further decline in the market cannot be ruled out.

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