SunSirs: The Retail Price Adjustment for Refined Oil Products Has Encountered another Setback This Round

The domestic refined oil price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on September 23. The retail price of refined oil will not be adjusted for the time being. In 2025, the retail price of refined oil has experienced six upward adjustments, seven downward adjustments, and five grounding. The crude oil market is mainly volatile during this cycle, and the positive rate of change in crude oil continues to shrink. The retail price adjustment of refined oil in 2025 has encountered the "sixth grounding".

Entering this pricing cycle, the international oil price market is mainly volatile. As of the 22nd, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $62.64 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $66.57 per barrel. During this round of price adjustment cycle, the crude oil price market first rose and then fell, and geopolitical factors remain one of the important factors affecting the crude oil market. The resurgence of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has triggered a rebound in the international crude oil stage. However, OPEC+ has decided to continue increasing production in October, and coupled with the increase in US oil inventories, the market still has high expectations of oversupply pressure, resulting in weak momentum for international oil prices to rise. As of the 22nd, the change rate of crude oil varieties on the tenth working day was 0.56%, corresponding to the adjustment red line of less than 50 yuan/ton per ton of gasoline and diesel in China. This round of retail price adjustment of refined oil has once again encountered a setback.

In terms of gasoline, the operating load of some facilities in the local refining industry has been increased, and the operating rate has slightly increased. The average operating rate of Shandong's local refining industry is around 54.5%, while the operating rate of the country's main refineries remains at around 86%. The supply of refined oil products from local refining industry has slightly increased. Recently, residents' travel and other activities have been normal, coupled with the recent fluctuations in the crude oil market, the wait-and-see atmosphere in the domestic gasoline market has intensified, and transactions have further been hit. In addition, the increasing popularity of new energy vehicles has led to lower than expected demand performance, resulting in a volatile and downward trend in the gasoline market.

In terms of diesel: Recently, there has been a slight increase in the supply side of the diesel market. In terms of demand, there has been an increase in rainy weather, which has weakened the terminal demand. Recently, the autumn harvest in agriculture has gradually begun, and the consumption of agricultural oil has increased compared to before. The demand for infrastructure and logistics is average. After entering September, the fishing ban in the north will end, and the demand for ship oil has increased compared to before. The diesel market is mainly volatile.

Looking ahead, the recent peak season for traditional fuel consumption in the United States is coming to an end, and supply side risks have not been eliminated. International oil prices are mainly experiencing weak fluctuations in the short term, which weakens the cost support for the domestic refined oil market. From a domestic perspective, the operating rate of refineries in the short term has continued to increase, and the supply of refined oil products has become loose. In addition, there has been no significant increase in gasoline demand, resulting in mainly fluctuating and declining gasoline market prices; The demand for diesel has increased compared to before, and diesel prices may fluctuate mainly in the later period.

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