SunSirs: China Corrugated Paper Stops Rising and Stabilizes, with Short-term Stability and Fluctuating Adjustments

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of corrugated paper has stopped rising and remained stable this week. On September 18, 2025, the average ex factory price of 140g corrugated paper was 2,758 RMB/ton, which remained stable compared to the average price on September 14.

In terms of upstream raw materials: This week, the price of waste paper in Zhejiang region stopped rising and fell, while the price of waste paper in domestic paper mills first rose and then fell. On September 18, 2025, the average purchase price of A-grade waste yellow board paper in Zhejiang region was 1,702 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.82% compared to the average price on September 14. Recently, with the increase in inventory at packaging stations, their shipments have gradually become more active, which has led to an increase in the supply of waste paper in the market. As the price of waste paper continues to rise, the resistance of paper mills to high priced waste paper has increased, which is unfavorable for the trend of waste paper prices.

On the supply side: There are signs of an increase in paper mill inventory, and the pressure on the supply side may gradually increase. The northern region has been affected by the resumption of production by some paper companies after the Beijing military parade, leading to a concentrated release of supply and gradually highlighting the supply-demand contradiction. This has suppressed the rise in corrugated paper prices, which may affect future market growth and upward momentum.

In terms of demand: September is the traditional peak season for corrugated paper. Due to the support of raw material costs and the continued replenishment of downstream secondary factories, corrugated paper in the southern region has slightly increased. However, downstream demand in the north is average, and with sufficient supply, a few paper companies have slightly lowered their unit prices. The market presents a situation of mixed ups and downs, and the market is mainly observing the future.

The paper analyst of SunSirs believes that the current scale paper mills are still continuously releasing price increase plans, and their attitude towards raising prices is relatively clear. In addition, during the National Day holiday, paper companies arranged for frequent shutdowns and maintenance, leading to an expected reduction in supply side inventory. But as the Mid Autumn Festival stocking season approaches its end, downstream demand has also decreased, and it is expected that the short-term price of corrugated paper may fluctuate and adjust steadily.

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