SunSirs: Diverging Trends in The International Agricultural Futures Market

This week, the overall performance of the international agricultural futures market is differentiated, with most agricultural products showing a downward trend. The prices of corn, wheat and other varieties on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) have declined month-on-month, while the futures price of soybean oil has risen against the trend, increasing by 10.88% year-on-year, becoming the focus of the market.From the specific market performance, the average price of corn futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) this week was reported at 443.100 US cents/bushel, down 4.86% month-on-month and down 1.74% year-on-year.

The highest price of the week was 461.25 US cents/bushel, and the lowest price was 439 US cents/bushel; the performance of wheat futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) was also weak, with the average price of the week reported at 513.950 US cents/bushel, down 0.24% month-on-month and down 18.12% year-on-year. The highest price of the week reached 526.5 US cents/bushel, and the lowest price was 505.5 US cents/bushel; the average price of soybean futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) was 1036.800 US cents/bushel, down 0.63% month-on-month and down 14.70% year-on-year; at the same time, the average price of soybean futures on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) was 4151.000 RMB/ton, down 0.22% month-on-month and down 11.29% year-on-year. The average price of soybean meal futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) was 287.560 US dollars/short ton, down 0.44% month-on-month and down 23.05% year-on-year, the largest decrease among all agricultural products.

It is worth noting that the performance of soybean oil futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) was strong, despite a decrease of 2.56% week-on-week, it increased by 10.88% year-on-year, becoming the only variety to achieve positive year-on-year growth. The highest price of the week was 49.36 US cents/pound, and the lowest price was 46.95 US cents/pound. The Tokyo Grain Exchange (TGE) corn futures this week showed a stable performance, with the price maintained at 39020 yen/ton, unchanged month-on-month and down 1.22% year-on-year. The average price of oat futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) was 368.950 US cents/bushel, up 0.64% month-on-month but down 6.97% year-on-year. The highest price of the week was 375 US cents/bushel, and the lowest price was 361 US cents/bushel.The differentiation in the price trend of international agricultural products this week is mainly influenced by multiple factors: First, global weather conditions have different degrees of impact on agricultural product production. The good weather conditions in the central and western regions of the United States are conducive to the sowing progress of corn and soybeans, which has exerted downward pressure on futures prices. In contrast, some parts of South America have experienced drought weather, affecting the expected soybean yield and supporting the price of soybean oil. Second, the strengthening of the US dollar index has exerted pressure on the prices of agricultural products priced in US dollars, especially on the prices of grains such as corn and wheat. In terms of supply and demand, the latest report from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) shows that the global wheat stock level is higher than expected, and the corn production forecast has been revised upward, exacerbating market concerns about a sufficient supply. At the same time, our country has been continuously increasing its import of agricultural products, especially a significant increase in the import of soybean oil, which has provided important support for the international soybean oil price. In terms of geopolitical issues, the conflict in the Black Sea region continues to affect the grain export channels of Ukraine and Russia, especially introducing uncertainty into the wheat supply chain. In addition, fluctuations in the energy market have also been transmitted to the agricultural product market. The fluctuation of crude oil prices affects the production cost of agriculture and the demand for biofuels, thereby affecting the price trend of corn and soybeans.

From a macroeconomic perspective, global inflationary pressures still exist, and the monetary policies of major economies are tight, which suppresses the demand for agricultural products. In terms of biofuel policies, policy adjustments in the United States and Brazil and other countries for biodiesel and ethanol have a direct impact on the demand for soybean oil and corn. Changes in the international trade pattern are also an important factor. The intensification of competition in the soybean export market between the United States and Brazil, and the adjustment of the purchasing strategy of our country as the world's largest agricultural product importer, have a profound impact on the international market. In summary, the complex pattern of the international agricultural product market this week is shaped by multiple factors such as supply and demand fundamentals, the macroeconomic environment, climate change, and policy adjustments. It is expected that the market will still maintain a differentiated trend in the short term.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, On September 2nd, the benchmark price of corn on SunSirs was 2,301.43 RMB per ton, remaining the same as at the beginning of this month.

On September 2nd, the benchmark price of soybeans by SunSirs was 4,312.00 RMB per ton, remaining the same as at the beginning of this month.

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