SunSirs: Ukraine's Bumper Grain Harvest Increases Global Supply

The Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture announced on Friday that as of November 27, Ukraine had harvested 10.42 million hectares of grain (including legumes), equivalent to 89% of the planned harvest area of ​​11.475 million hectares; the harvest yielded 52.581 million tons, with an average yield of 5.05 tons per hectare.

The Ukrainian grain harvest data shows increased supply (52.581 million tons of yield, 5.05 tons per hectare), which may lead to an increase in the supply of rapeseed, the raw material for rapeseed meal, putting downward pressure on spot prices. Combined with rapeseed meal futures contract data (e.g., the closing price of the 2601 contract was 2,423 RMB/ton, down 23.00 RMB/ton), the recent decrease in open interest and the downward trend in prices indicate a strengthening of bearish sentiment in the market, further negatively impacting futures prices.

The bumper grain harvest in Ukraine (including legumes) is expected to increase rapeseed supply and reduce rapeseed oil production costs, thus having a negative impact on spot prices. Referring to rapeseed oil futures data (e.g., the OI2601 contract closed at 9,745 RMB/ton, down 27.00 RMB/ton), increased trading volume and a downward price trend indicate that news of increased supply may exacerbate selling pressure in the futures market, reinforcing short-term bearish expectations.

The Ukrainian grain harvest covers legume crops (production of 52.581 million tons, accounting for 89% of the plan), and the expected increase in soybean supply will put downward pressure on spot prices. As a major export commodity, a bumper harvest may increase global inventories, suppressing price increases, which is a significant bearish factor.

Ukrainian grain harvest data shows ample supply of crops such as corn (yield of 5.05 tons/hectare), which may increase global corn spot supply and put downward pressure on prices. The bumper harvest news reflects higher-than-expected production, reducing the risk of market shortages and reinforcing the short-term bearish trend.

Increased corn supply (Ukrainian harvest data indicates a grain production of 52.581 million tons) may reduce the cost of corn starch raw materials, which has a bearish impact on spot prices. In an environment of ample supply, with no significant support on the demand side, downward pressure on prices will increase.

A bumper grain harvest in Ukraine (including legumes) suggests increased supply of oilseeds such as rapeseed, putting downward pressure on spot prices. The bumper harvest data (yield of 5.05 tons/hectare) eases expectations of tight supply, potentially depressing global rapeseed prices, which is considered a moderate to significant negative factor.

If you have any enquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.