SunSirs: In August, the MDI Market Rose First and Then Fell

Price trend

According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, the domestic MDI market initially rose in August before declining overall. From August 1 to 28, the domestic MDI market price rose from 15,416 RMB/ton to 15,316 RMB/ton, a monthly drop of 0.65% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.46%.

Analysis review

In early August, factories operated stably, suppliers released news of price support, middlemen's quotations rose steadily, and downstream transactions were mostly small orders. Under the game of supply and demand, the market rose slightly.

In mid-to-late August, after prices for MDI rebounded, the market began to stabilize. Downstream demand surged, with orders surging. During the off-season, upstream supply was sluggish, leading to lower quotes from major manufacturers and price cuts from traders. This weakened confidence in the industry, and the MDI market entered a downward trend, with prices declining until the end of the month.

On the supply side, Totsao Ruian's 80,000 ton/year MDI unit began maintenance on July 23rd, with an estimated duration of approximately 35 days. The remaining units were operating smoothly.

On the cost side, the raw material benzene market saw a volatile upward trend in August. Affected by both supply and demand and macroeconomic factors, the average price of benzene was 6,075 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month and 6,154 RMB/ton at the end of the month, a monthly increase of 1.28%. The aniline market saw stabilization in August, with prices fluctuating from 7,550 RMB/ton on August 1 to 7,550 RMB/ton on August 28, representing zero price change within the period and a decrease of 25.43% compared to the same period last year.

On the demand side, downstream companies were purchasing on a tight schedule and buying on dips. However, there were relatively few inquiries and insufficient support from the demand side.

Future outlook:

As the end of the month approaching, the market atmosphere became weak, middlemen were not willing to ship goods, and the supply side was more willing to maintain prices and waited for the latest price guidance from major manufacturers. It is expected that the MDI market will be weaker in the short term.

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