SunSirs: Last Week, the MDI Market Strengthened and Rose (December 1-5)

Price trend

According to the SunSirs' commodity price analysis system, from December 1st to 5th, the domestic MDI market price showed a strong upward trend. The average price at the beginning of the week was 14,533 RMB/ton, and the average price at the end of the week was 14,666 RMB/ton, representing a 0.92% increase during the period and a 19.19% decrease year-on-year. During the week, there were frequent reports of maintenance shutdowns at major foreign manufacturers, leading to continuous price increases. Simultaneously, domestic manufacturers also announced new maintenance shutdowns, strengthening expectations of tighter supply and boosting market confidence. Downstream demand remained primarily for essential needs, with cautious market participation and mostly small-volume transactions, resulting in a slight increase in the MDI market price.

Market Analysis

Supply side: Wanhua Ningbo began maintenance on November 15th, with the maintenance expected to last approximately 55 days. BASF Chongqing and Covestro Shanghai plants both had maintenance plans in December. Huntsman's 280,000 tons/year MDI plant in the Netherlands experienced an unexpected shutdown in late November, expected to last until mid-December, with remaining production lines operating at low capacity. Saudi Arabia's 400,000 tons/year MDI plant is scheduled for maintenance in January 2026.

In terms of costs, the benzene market fluctuated within a range last week. The main ports in East China are expected to enter a period of continuous inventory accumulation. Furthermore, with the weather turning colder, insufficient end-user orders and low operating rates downstream continued to pressure price recovery across the industry chain. Amidst the interplay of bullish and bearish forces, the benzene market is expected to consolidate within a range. The aniline market retreated from its high point last week. On December 5th, the price of aniline was 7,970 RMB/ton, compared to 8,145 RMB/ton on December 1st, representing a decrease of 2.15% during the period.

On the demand side, downstream buyers were entering the market only as needed, and their resistance to high-priced goods was increasing, making it difficult for transactions to reach significant volumes.

Market Forecast:

The supply of MDI was tight, and the marke twas in a wait-and-see mode. Market participants were closely monitoring transaction activity. It is expected that the MDI market will be stronger in the short term.

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