SunSirs: Under the Game of Supply and Demand, the Toluene Market Is Relatively Stable

Price trend

According to the SunSirs’ Commodity Market Analysis System, the toluene market remained stable from August 8 to 15, 2025. The benchmark price of toluene remained unchanged at 5,560 RMB/ton on August 8 and 15, respectively. The toluene market remains stable during this period. In Shandong, some companies are refraining from exporting this week, focusing on their own consumption. Export companies are primarily focusing on pre-sales, and refinery quotes are generally stable. The East China market is experiencing a mix of negative and positive factors, with the market operating temporarily stable amidst a supply-demand game. While supply in South China is slightly tight, weakening crude oil prices are weighing on market sentiment, and prices remain relatively stable this week.

Analysis review

Cost: Crude oil prices have been range-bound this cycle. OPEC+ announced a cumulative production increase of 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd) by September, marking the organization's exit from its planned production cuts of over 2.2 million bpd a year ahead of schedule, negative news for the oil market. Furthermore, the impact of Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions, negative global macroeconomic data, and the impending summer off-season in the United States are likely to continue weighing on crude oil prices. As of August 14th, the September WTI crude oil futures contract settled at $63.96 per barrel. The October Brent crude oil futures contract settled at $66.84 per barrel.

Supply: Sinopec's toluene operations are operating normally, with stable production and production primarily for self-use. Production and sales remain stable. As of August 15th, the East China unit quotes 5,500 RMB/ton, the North China unit 5,500 RMB/ton, the South China unit 5,650-5,700 RMB/ton, and the Central China unit 5,600 RMB/ton.

Demand Side: On August 15th, Sinopec Sales Company's paraxylene prices remains stable at 7,000 RMB/ton. This price applies to all regions in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Plants at Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical are operating stably, and sales are normal. This price remains unchanged from August 9th. As of August 14th, the closing price of paraxylene in the Asian market was $799-801/ton FOB Korea and $824-826/ton CFR China, a decrease of $15/ton from August 8th.

Market outlook

The recent range-bound crude oil market has provided insufficient guidance for the spot market. With a mix of positive and negative factors on the supply and demand sides, and a lack of clear market guidance, the toluene market is expected to remain relatively stable in the short term. Focus will be on crude oil trends and downstream demand moving forward.

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