SunSirs: Demand Was Weak, and the Toluene Market Slightly Declined

Price trend

According to the SunSirs’ Commodity Market Analysis System, the toluene market experienced a volatile decline from August 4 to 11, 2025. The benchmark price of toluene was 5,580 RMB/ton on August 4, and 5,560 RMB/ton on August 11, a decrease of 0.36%. The toluene market saw a slight decline this period. Affected by crude oil fluctuations, the toluene market declined narrowly this period. Ex-factory prices in Shandong Province generally declined slightly during the week, primarily for self-use, and regional supply remained tight. Supply in East and South China was relatively loose during the week, with weaker crude oil prices impacting market sentiment. In South China, Sinopec lowered its listed price, driving a general decline in spot market prices.

Analysis review

Cost:

As of the 8th, the September contract for WTI crude oil futures settled at $63.88 per barrel. The October contract for Brent crude oil futures settled at $66.59 per barrel. Negative factors weighed on the crude oil market. OPEC+ announced a cumulative production increase of 2.3 million barrels per day (bpd) by September, marking the organization's exit from its planned production cuts of over 2.2 million bpd a year ahead of schedule. This news was also bearish for the oil market. Furthermore, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, negative global macroeconomic data, and the impending summer off-season in the US were impacting the oil market. This, coupled with fundamental factors such as the impending US summer demand slowdown, will continue to pressure crude oil prices.

Supply:

Sinopec's toluene operations were operating normally, with stable production and production primarily for self-use. Production and sales remained stable. As of August 11th, the East China unit quoted 5,500 RMB/ton, the North China unit 5,500 RMB/ton, the South China unit 5,650-5,700 RMB/ton, and the Central China unit 5,600 RMB/ton.

Demand Side:

On August 11, Sinopec Sales Company's paraxylene prices remained stable at 7,000 RMB/ton. This price applied to all regions in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Plants at Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical were operating stably, and sales were normal. This price remained unchanged from August 4. As of August 8, the closing price of paraxylene in the Asian market was $814-816/ton FOB Korea and $839-841/ton CFR China, a decrease of $20/ton from August 1.

Market outlook

The crude oil market has recently experienced wide fluctuations, with market sentiment remaining weak. There have been no significant changes on the supply side, while demand remains relatively rigid. Overall, the supply and demand is weak, and the toluene market is expected to remain volatile in a narrow range.

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