SunSirs: The Ethanol Market Situation Is Being Sorted out and Wait-and-See

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from July 14th to 18th, the domestic ethanol price rises to 5,668 RMB/ton, with a price increase of 0.06% during the period, a month on month increase of 3.44%, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.83%. Corn prices have narrowly declined, and cost support has weakened. At present, the domestic ethanol market is showing a weak supply-demand situation, and the ethanol market is mainly focused on consolidation and observation.

Analysis review

In terms of cost, the overall corn price is still weak, the market atmosphere is weak, and spot prices continue to decline. The cost of ethanol is bearish for the market.

On the supply side, there is little fluctuation in the production of edible ethanol. Heilongjiang Hongzhan Huanan has resumed production, Jixian has one production line, Laha has one production line, Zhongke Green has one production line, Jilin Dongfeng has shut down, Henan Houyuan has shut down, Hanyong has unstable equipment, and Sichuan Hongzhan has stopped feeding. The impact of ethanol supply is mixed.

On the demand side, from the perspective of demand, the consumption of downstream chemical orders in the early stage, and the shutdown of some downstream methyl ethyl carbonate factories in Shandong region are expected to last for about a month, resulting in a decrease in ethanol consumption. Short term ethanol demand is bearish for the market.

Future outlook:

The supply has slightly fluctuated and adjusted, with no significant increase. The ethanol analyst from SunSirs predicts that there will be minimal fluctuations in the short-term ethanol market.

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