SunSirs: China Wood Pulp Prices will Fluctuate in the short term

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the price of softwood pulp first decreased and then increased this week, while hardwood pulp showed a slight decline. On July 10th, the average market price of softwood pulp in Shandong Province was 5,933.33 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.28% compared to the average price on July 6th. On July 10th, the average market price of hardwood pulp in Shandong Province was 4,033.33 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.41% compared to the average price on July 6th.

On the supply side: The current market is showing an overall pattern of loose supply, and the arrival volume of imported pulp remains stable. In addition, the continuous abundant supply in the domestic pulp market has suppressed the spot market price of imported pulp to a certain extent, leading to a low-level fluctuation in the spot price of imported pulp. As of July 10, 2025, the sample inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.179 million tons, a decrease of 1.5% compared to the previous period, and the inventory showed a trend of destocking in this cycle. The inventory of pulp in the mainstream domestic port of Qingdao Port shows a slight trend of destocking; Changshu Port's inventory shows a slight accumulation trend; Inventory clearance at Gaolan Port to below 100,000 tons; The inventory levels of other ports have remained within the normal range of fluctuations.

On the demand side: Currently, downstream raw paper prices continue to run weakly, and the paper industry's profit recovery is insufficient. Against the backdrop of increasing pressure to reduce inventory in the market, paper mills are lowering upstream raw material procurement prices in order to optimize raw material procurement costs, thereby exerting a drag on wood pulp prices.

In terms of futures, the price of pulp futures has rebounded this week. Under the transmission effect of the basis quotation mechanism, the spot market price of imported pulp has been raised. As of July 10th, the opening price of the main contract sp2509 pulp futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 5,100 RMB/ton, the closing price was 5,196 RMB/ton, and the highest price was 5,204 RMB/ton, with a daily increase of 2%. The trading volume was 321,100 lots, and the position was 150,710 lots.

SunSirs wood pulp analyst believes that the current overseas wood pulp supply is disrupted, domestic pulp production capacity is sufficient, and the substitution effect of localization is further enhanced. In addition, downstream market consumption demand is lower than expected, and it is expected that the short-term wood pulp prices will continue to fluctuate and consolidate.

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