SunSirs: The Overall Price of Polyester Filament was Stable Yesterday

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the overall price of polyester filament is stable today. The price of polyester filament has been fluctuating and strong recently. As of June 24, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang offered POY (150D/48F) at 7150-7350 RMB/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 8350-8700 RMB/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 7500-7650 RMB/ton.

Cost side

In the past week, the price of crude oil has jumped. The intensified conflict between Israel and Iran has pushed WTI crude oil to break through the key resistance level. The polyester raw materials PTA/MEG have followed suit, directly pushing up the production cost of polyester filament. Recently, the polyester filament market has continued to maintain a situation of rising volume and price. Most manufacturers have raised their quotations, and the transaction center of gravity has risen simultaneously.

Supply and demand

On the supply side, the industry operating rate remained at a high level of 90.3%. Although there were frequent news about the maintenance of polyester filament devices in June, there were actually few clearly announced maintenance devices. Most mainstream factories reduced lines or machine operation, and the supply volume did not decline significantly.

On the demand side, the operating rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang during the textile off-season was only 60.7%, and the profit of grey cloth was as low as 0.01 RMB/meter. The downstream purchase was mainly based on rigid demand; domestic clothing retail sales in January-May increased by 3.3% year-on-year, and policy stimulus has not yet been effectively transmitted. At present, it is in the traditional off-season of the textile industry, with tight downstream orders and low operating rates. There is uncertainty as to whether subsequent demand can continue to follow up.

Policy and geopolitical risks

Tariff pressure: The US 10% tariff has come into effect, and the second round of 15% tariffs may be implemented in October. After the downstream rush to export, it will enter a wait-and-see period.

Ocean shipping costs have fallen: freight rates on Egypt routes have fallen by 22% (US$5,900 → US$4,600), partially alleviating the costs of export companies.

SunSirs believes that with the strengthening of cost support and the decline in inventory, mainstream factories may tentatively raise prices, and prices will rise, but the off-season demand will suppress the increase. The weaving operating rate and crude oil trend are the main influencing factors. In the short term, prices may fluctuate in a narrow range, with cost support and weak demand playing a game. In the next 1-2 months, we need to closely follow the pace of terminal order recovery and crude oil policy trends.

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