SunSirs: The Price of Ethylene Glycol is Expected to Stop Falling and Rebound in June

The price of ethylene glycol stopped falling and rebounded in May 2025. According to the data from SunSirs, as of May 30, the average price of domestic oil-based ethylene glycol was 4,521.67 RMB/ton, up 4.39% from the average price of ethylene glycol of 4,331.67 RMB/ton on May 1.

In terms of imported ethylene glycol, the spot contract of ethylene glycol at the port on May 30, 2025 was traded well, the basis was firm, and the transaction range was 4,460-4,520 RMB/ton. In terms of basis, the spot contract of this week is in the range of +150 to +155 in the early trading. After the closing, the basis of this week's contract is quoted at +148 to +152, the basis of next week's contract is quoted at +147 to +150, the basis of the contract in June is quoted at +146 to +149, the basis of the contract in July is quoted at +112 to +117, and the basis of the contract in August is quoted at +80 to +85.

The spot price of domestic coal-based polyester-grade ethylene glycol (bulk water, tax-inclusive, self-pickup) is 4050-4150 RMB/ton.

In terms of foreign ethylene glycol, as of May 29, the landed price of ethylene glycol in China was US$522/ton, and the landed price of ethylene glycol in Southeast Asia was US$535/ton.

The port inventory was significantly destocked in May

From January to mid-February, the port ethylene glycol inventory accumulated significantly, and the port inventory fluctuated sideways from March to May. On May 29, 2025, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 576,700 tons, a decrease of 124,200 tons from the total inventory of 700,900 tons on April 28; a decrease of 121,100 tons from the total inventory of 697,800 tons on April 3; and a decrease of 95,200 tons from the total inventory of 671,900 tons on March 31.

Ethylene glycol prices are expected to fluctuate and run stronger in June

Ethylene glycol prices are expected to fluctuate and run stronger in June, with certain support below in the short term, but limited upward space. The supply and demand pattern of ethylene glycol in June may maintain a tight balance or slightly loose trend.

Supply side: There is an expectation of supply increase but the range is limited. On the one hand, Fujian Refining has restarted, Zhejiang Petrochemical's 800,000-ton unit is planned to start, coal-to-chemical units such as Shaanxi Coal Weihua have successively discharged materials, Inner Mongolia Tongliao Jinmei and others have also restarted, and overseas Malaysian Petroleum plans to restart units, and the supply has an increasing trend. On the other hand, large ethylene glycol units such as Hengli Petrochemical and Satellite Petrochemical were overhauled in May and June, and large units of Shenghong Refining and Chemical were operated at reduced load, which limited the growth of the supply side.

Demand side: The demand side has some support overall. Although polyester entered the traditional off-season in June, the demand for antifreeze gradually started, and the polyester production remained at a relatively high level, which provided some demand support for ethylene glycol, and the overall demand side was expected to increase.

Inventory side: Inventory is expected to continue to be reduced. Recently, there have been fewer overseas cargoes arriving at the port, and the subsequent recovery of imports has been limited. Ethylene glycol is expected to be destocked more in May and June, and the destocking of port inventories may accelerate in June, which will provide some support for prices.

Cost side: The cost side has weak support. At present, the price of terminal raw material coal continues to be weak, and the price of crude oil is in a volatile trend. In the short term, the cost side of ethylene glycol is difficult to be strongly supported, which has a certain inhibitory effect on the upward price.

In summary, it is expected that the supply and demand of ethylene glycol will be mainly balanced in June, and the fundamental contradictions are not big. The low inventory in the main ports still supports the price from below, but the upward space needs to see the further downward shift of the center of gravity of inventory or the upward shift of the cost side. The price of ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate at a high level in June.

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