SunSirs: In May, Wood Pulp Maintained a Range of Shocks in the Short Term

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs: In May 2025, the prices of coniferous wood pulp and broadleaf wood pulp were slightly lowered overall. On May 30, the average market price of coniferous wood pulp in Shandong was 6216.67 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.53% compared with the average price on May 1. On May 30, the average market price of broadleaf wood pulp in Shandong was 4166.67 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.96% compared with the average price on May 1.

Supply: Judging from the previous wood pulp imports, both coniferous and broadleaf pulps increased month-on-month, which may increase the overall arrival volume of imported goods in May. As for domestic pulp, Shandong Huatai's new broadleaf pulp production capacity has been put into production in mid-April. With the stabilization of later production, the supply pressure of wood pulp continued in May. In mid-May, the Sino-US Geneva economic and trade talks achieved important results, and the bilateral tariff level between China and the United States was greatly reduced. Therefore, the import supply will be relieved in the future and may rise. In addition, the external quotation of wood pulp has been lowered, and the supply-side support is relatively weak.

Demand: From the perspective of the off-season and peak season of the papermaking industry in previous years, May is mostly the traditional off-season for cultural paper and white cardboard, while the market demand for household paper may improve in May due to the 618 e-commerce festival. After the May Day holiday, various paper mills are in a state of resuming production and work, so the demand for wood pulp has increased slightly, but paper mills mostly purchase on demand, and there is no sign of large-scale purchases. Due to the easing of import tariffs between China and the United States, pulp futures have continued to rise, driving the spot price of wood pulp to rise. However, near the end of the month, the price of wood pulp fell again due to the weakening demand.

In terms of domestic port inventory: the overall inventory volume did not change much in this cycle, showing a trend of small accumulation. As of May 29, 2025, the sample inventory volume of China's mainstream pulp ports was 2.161 million tons, up 0.2% from the previous period. In this period, the inventory of Qingdao Port, a mainstream domestic pulp port, showed a trend of small accumulation. The average daily shipping speed in the port did not change much from the previous cycle, increasing to 16,000 tons/day, and the number of broadleaf pulp from the main port accounted for a large proportion; the inventory of Changshu Port showed a trend of destocking, with the weekly shipment volume approaching 70,000 tons; the inventory volume of other ports did not change much and fluctuated within the normal range.

In terms of futures: the price of pulp futures showed a state of more long and less decline. As of May 30, the opening price of the main contract of Shanghai Futures Exchange pulp futures sp2507 was 5484 RMB/ton, the closing price was 5414 RMB/ton, the highest price was 5494 RMB/ton, the daily increase was 0.37%, the transaction volume was 380,100 lots, and the position was 76,050 lots.

The wood pulp analyst of SunSirs believes that due to the easing of the import tariff relationship between China and the United States, the performance of pulp futures prices is positive, which has boosted the wood pulp spot market. However, the market supply is strong and demand is weak, and the wood pulp price continues to fluctuate. It is expected that the spot price of wood pulp will remain in a range of fluctuations in the short term.

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