SunSirs: Corrugated Paper first Suppressed and then Rose in May, with Short-term or Strong Trend

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of corrugated paper showed a trend of first declining and then rebounding in May 2025. On May 29th, the average ex factory price of 140g corrugated paper was 2,650 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.53% compared to the average price on May 1st.

In terms of upstream raw materials: In May, the price of waste paper in Zhejiang Province surged slightly, while domestic waste paper prices mostly showed an upward trend. On May 29th, the average purchase price of A-grade waste yellow cardboard in Zhejiang Province was 1,518 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.85% compared to the average price on May 1st. In May, the supply and demand of the waste paper market shifted to a pattern of weak supply and increased demand, and the price of waste yellow cardboard rebounded. With the easing of tariffs between China and the United States, the quantity of exported goods in foreign trade has increased since mid to late May, leading to a rise in demand for paper packaging and a decline in paper mill inventory. In addition, some paper mills have increased their operating load rates, driving an increase in demand for waste paper. Therefore, paper mills increase the price of waste paper to attract the amount of waste paper received.

On the supply side: Paper inventory continued to rise in early May, and the price of corrugated paper in paper mills was under pressure, resulting in a weak and declining price performance. In mid month, after the Geneva economic and trade negotiations between China and the United States decided to reduce tariffs from May 14th, corrugated paper prices rebounded and downstream demand increased, resulting in a decrease in corrugated paper inventory in paper mills and a return to normal production levels.

On the demand side: In early May, the industry was still in the traditional off-season for consumption, and there was limited room for improvement in e-commerce festival orders and terminal demand. Coupled with the impact of tariff friction, the uncertainty of external demand orders was high, and the support for demand was insufficient. After the mutual reduction of tariffs between China and the United States in the middle and late stages, the quantity of exported goods increased, and the demand for paper packaging also heated up. Based on the current market situation, the order situation of downstream packaging factories is better than before. The increase in orders has prompted packaging factories to replenish their raw paper inventory appropriately, thereby promoting the increase in market trading activity. The price of corrugated paper has continued to rise, and the rebound is relatively obvious.

The paper analyst of SunSirs believes that the current demand for corrugated paper market has slightly slowed down, and the bullish sentiment in the market has slightly cooled down. The previous increase was too fast, and there may be a brief correction. However, as demand continues to show a positive trend, leading paper mills have issued price increase letters, providing support for corrugated paper prices. It is expected that corrugated paper prices will continue to strengthen in the short term.

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