SunSirs: The Retail Price of Refined Oil Products in This Round has been Lowered for the "Fifth Time"

The domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened at 24:00 on May 19th, and the zero selling price of refined oil has once again been lowered. The retail price of refined oil in 2025 has experienced three upward adjustments, four downward adjustments, and two stranded adjustments. During this cycle, the crude oil market first fell and then rose, and the crude oil change rate remained negative. The retail price of refined oil in 2025 has encountered a "fifth" downward adjustment.

Entering this pricing cycle, the international oil price market first fell and then rose. As of the 16th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $62.49 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $65.41 per barrel. During the May Day holiday, crude oil prices fell sharply, mainly due to OPEC+increasing production beyond expectations, which was negative for international oil prices and led to a significant decline in the crude oil market. After May Day, with the increasing oil restrictions imposed by the United States on a certain country, as well as the impact of the Israeli Palestinian conflict and the intention of negotiations between China and the United States, the international oil price trend rose. Later, with the easing of tariffs between China and the United States, the crude oil market mainly fluctuated. As of the 19th, the change rate of crude oil varieties on the 10th working day was -4.53%, corresponding to an expected reduction of 230 RMB/ton for domestic gasoline and 220 RMB/ton for diesel, equivalent to 89# 0.17 RMB, 92# 0.18 RMB, 95# 0.19 RMB, and 0# 0.19 RMB per liter. The zero selling price of refined oil in this round has been further reduced.

In terms of gasoline, there has been little change in the operating rate of local refineries recently. The average operating rate of local refineries in Shandong is around 52%, while the operating rate of major refineries nationwide is around 80%. The supply of refined oil from local refineries is normal. Due to the increase in activities such as residents' travel during the May Day holiday, businesses tend to stock up in moderation before the holiday. However, there is limited follow-up on immediate needs after the holiday. In addition, considering inventory levels, the cooling of transactions has suppressed oil prices, and the continuous penetration of new energy vehicles has had a certain impact on gasoline demand. Overall, the gasoline market has slightly declined..

In terms of diesel: Recently, there has been little change in the supply side of the diesel market. In terms of demand, due to the lack of obvious positive market conditions, terminal demand has remained stable. Some manufacturers have tentatively reduced their diesel prices for promotion before the holiday. In addition, the slowdown in manufacturing activities may inhibit the seasonal recovery of diesel consumption. Some sea areas have entered a fishing ban period, and diesel demand has not improved significantly. The trend of the diesel market is fluctuating at a low level.

Looking at the future, the current crude oil market is affected by both bullish and bearish factors, and there are signs of easing relations between the United States and Iran. This news has a certain negative impact on the crude oil market, but OPEC+has once again been embroiled in disputes over production quotas, with crude oil prices mainly fluctuating in the short term. From a domestic perspective, the operating rate of refineries has declined in the short term, and the supply of refined oil has decreased. However, the demand for gasoline is generally average, and the gasoline market prices are mainly fluctuating; There is still support for diesel demand, and diesel prices may rise slightly in the later stage.

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