SunSirs: China Corrugated Paper Matket is still in a Downward Trend, with Short-term Low-level Fluctuations

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of corrugated paper maintained a downward trend last week. On May 16, 2025, the average ex factory price of 140g corrugated paper was 2,624 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.91% compared to the average price on May 11.

In terms of upstream raw materials: Last week, the price of waste paper in Zhejiang region slightly decreased, while the price of waste paper in domestic paper mills remained stable with small fluctuations. On May 16, 2025, the average purchase price of A-grade waste yellow board paper in Zhejiang region was 1,476 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.54% compared to the average price on May 11. Due to weak expectations for downstream packaging paper demand, the intention of paper mills to start production is under pressure, thus suppressing the operation of waste paper prices. However, in some areas, the impact of rainy weather has led to a low supply of waste paper, which has also provided some positive support for paper prices.

On the supply side: Currently, paper companies have relatively high inventory levels, which poses a certain resistance to the rise in paper prices. Although the planned new production capacity of corrugated paper within this year is less than one million tons, the introduction of new production capacity will lead to a year-on-year increase in market output. Combined with the net increase of 1.9 million tons of production capacity from January to April, the overall supply pressure remains high.

On the demand side: May to August is still in the traditional off-season for consumption in the industry, and there is limited room for improvement in recent e-commerce festival orders and terminal demand. Coupled with the impact of tariff friction, there is a high degree of uncertainty in external demand orders, and the support for demand is insufficient.

The paper analyst from SunSirs believes that the current market fundamentals are still under pressure, with an increase in market supply and insufficient demand support. Under the impact of market supply-demand contradictions, it is expected that corrugated paper will remain at a low level and fluctuate in the short term.

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