SunSirs: The Market Situation of China BR has slightly Improved

Recently (5.1-5.12), the butadiene rubber market has slightly improved. According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, as of May 12th, the butadiene rubber market price in East China was 12,010 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.50% from 11,950 RMB/ton at the beginning of May. The price of raw material butadiene has dropped significantly, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has shifted downwards; The production of butadiene rubber has increased, and the pressure on the supply side has slightly increased; In April, the production of semi steel tires in the downstream remained stable, while the production of all steel tires slightly decreased, which slightly weakened the support for the demand for butadiene rubber. As of April 29th, the mainstream prices for Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze BR in East China were 11,850-12,250 RMB/ton.

Recently (5.1-5.12), the price of butadiene has slightly increased, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has shifted upward. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of May 12th, the price of butadiene was 9,333 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.94% from 9,066 RMB/ton at the beginning of May.

Recently (5.1-5.12), the construction of domestic butadiene rubber plants has significantly increased, with the overall construction rate rising from around 67% at the end of April to around 75%, resulting in increased pressure on the supply side of butadiene rubber.

Demand side: Recently (5.1-5.12), downstream tire production has significantly decreased, which has weakened the support for the butadiene rubber market. As of May 9th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 58%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 45%.

From a fundamental perspective, analysts from SunSirs believe that the price of butadiene will slightly increase in the short term, and the cost support for butadiene rubber will still be weak; The decline in downstream production has a bearish impact on BR, with weak transactions. Overall, it is expected that the BR market will consolidate weakly in the later period.

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