SunSirs: China Wood Pulp slightly Declined and Fluctuated narrowly in the Short Term after the May Day Holiday

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the prices of softwood pulp and hardwood pulp still showed a slight decline after the May Day holiday. On May 8th, the average market price of softwood pulp in Shandong Province was 6,200 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.8% compared to the average price on May 1st. On May 8th, the average market price of hardwood pulp in Shandong Province was 4,166.67 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.96% compared to the average price on May 1st.

On the supply side, based on data from major producing countries exporting to China, Brazil's shipments of coniferous and hardwood pulp to China in March showed an increase compared to the previous month; Although the coniferous pulp sent from Chile to China has decreased compared to the previous period, the broad-leaved pulp has shown an increase. Therefore, after a shipping schedule of about 2 months, it is expected that the overall import volume in May may increase. In terms of domestic pulp, according to market rumors, the new production capacity of Shandong Huatai broad-leaved pulp has been put into operation in mid April. With the stability of later production, the supply side pressure in the pulp market may continue in May, which will drag down the pulp price.

On the demand side: From the perspective of previous years' peak and off seasons in the paper industry, May is mostly the traditional off-season for cultural paper and white cardboard, while the market demand for household paper may improve in May due to the influence of the 618 e-commerce festival. The current May Day holiday has ended, and various paper mills are in a state of resuming production and work, resulting in a slight increase in demand for wood pulp. However, most paper mills purchase on demand and there is no sign of large-scale procurement.

Domestic port data: Inventory levels have shown a trend of destocking in this cycle. As of May 8, 2025, the sample inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.035 million tons, a decrease of 3.0% compared to the previous period. This cycle, the inventory of pulp in the mainstream domestic port of Qingdao Port showed a trend of destocking, and the daily average shipment speed in the port recovered to 14,000 tons. The main port source of broad-leaved pulp accounted for a relatively large proportion. Changshu Port's inventory shows a trend of destocking, with shipments exceeding 90000 tons within the week. The inventory levels of other ports fluctuate within the normal range.

In terms of futures, this week's pulp futures prices first fell and then rose. As of May 8th, the opening price of the main contract sp2507 pulp futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 5,130 RMB/ton, the closing price was 5,148 RMB/ton, and the highest price was 5,164 RMB/ton, with a daily increase of 0.74%. The trading volume was 205,700 lots, and the position was 121,558 lots.

SunSirs wood pulp analyst believes that the current improvement in the supply and demand of the wood pulp market is limited, and there are growth expectations on the supply side of the market. However, the demand side lacks obvious positive support or continues to be weak, and it is expected that the short-term wood pulp prices will maintain a narrow range of fluctuations.

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