SunSirs: Dragged by Bullish and Bearish Factors in March, Polyester Filament Prices Fell

Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the overall price of polyester filament has been weak due to the drag of long and short factors this month. At the end of the month, some companies alleviated inventory pressure and offered discounts on shipments through promotional offers. On March 31st, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang quoted POY (150D/48F) at 6,800-7,100 RMB/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 8,100-8,350 RMB/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 7,100-7,400 RMB/ton.

Analysis review

In terms of cost, international crude oil prices fluctuated due to the geopolitical situation and supply and demand expectations, with the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract fluctuating around 85 US dollars per barrel in March. The prices of upstream raw materials (PX, PTA, MEG) have all fallen across the board. At the end of March, the average price of PTA in the East China market was 4,861 RMB/ton, a decrease of nearly 2% from the beginning of the month..

In terms of demand, the traditional peak season of "gold March and silver April" did not perform as expected, with weak foreign trade orders and domestic sales mainly focused on replenishing inventory for essential needs. The release pace of spring and summer orders was slow, and the growth rate of polyester filament production capacity slowed down. However, the high operating rate (about 88%) led to inventory rising to a nearly three-year high, resulting in significant supply pressure in the industry.

Market outlook

Overall, the polyester filament market has been under triple pressure this month, including declining costs, weak demand, and high inventory levels. Prices have remained stable but slightly weaker. In the future, it is important to focus on the trend of crude oil, the pace of terminal order recovery, and enterprise differentiation strategies. There is limited room for price rebound in the short term, and SunSirs believes that the polyester filament market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

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