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SunSirs: Terminal Demand is Hardly Optimistic, Chinese Polyester may Drop Back

April 13 2020 08:45:28     SunSirs (Linda)

According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, the domestic Polyester market price continued to rise sharply. The mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are reported to 5,150.00-5,500.00 yuan / ton for polyester POY150D/48F, 6,800.00-7,500.00 yuan / ton for polyester DTY150D /48F, and reported 5,850.00-6,100.00 yuan / ton for polyester FDY150D/96F. Affected by the news of crude oil production reduction, the raw material market was strongly supported, speculative bottom-up and replenishment market appeared, and the volume of transactions of polyester products was shifted, and inventory was smoothly transferred. In the second half of the week, the bottom-line purchases were gradually coming to an end, the market transaction atmosphere was significantly cooled, and the overall price increase slowed down.

Average price of polyester in the past 7 days, unit: yuan / ton

The raw material PTA's price quickly moved upwards under the impetus of crude oil. As of April 10, the market price was 3,453 yuan / ton, a weekly increase of 4.75% and a year-on-year decrease of 48.07%. Downstream factories and distributors ushered in the bargain-hunting sentiment, and the spot market saw a large volume of transactions. In terms of installation, Hanbang Petrochemical restarted its 600,000-ton PTA plant on the 9th, while Sino-Thai Petrochemical's 1.2-million-ton PTA plant was scheduled to restart on the 10th, and the PTA operating rate increased to around 92%. Bottom bargaining still exists in the market, and the production and sales of downstream polyester factories drive inventory transfers. At present, port unloading and shipment conditions have also eased. In addition, the factory's cash flow has increased, and the factory's willingness to overhaul has declined.

Recent changes in Chinese PTA devices

In the terminal textile market, export pressure continues to increase. According to customs statistics, from January to February 2020, China ’s exports of textile yarns, fabrics and products were US $ 137.725 billion, down 19.9% year-on-year. Apparel and clothing accessories were US $ 16.623 billion, down 20.0% . Domestically, China's Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms started to load up to 70% in mid-to-late March, but gradually declined to about 50% in April, and terminal demand was low during the peak season.

SunSirs analyst believes that raw material market prices have risen under the strong drive of crude oil, which has formed a favorable support for the polyester market. Due to the fact that most downstream textile factories and traders have completed stocking during the Qingming Holiday, the current transaction atmosphere is general, the terminal demand is hard to be optimistic, and the pressure on polyester yarn inventory will gradually increase. At present, the weak demand end has a great drag on polyester, so the price might fall in the near future.

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