SunSirs: China Natural Rubber Market Rise after the Spring Festival

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the overall domestic natural rubber spot price has risen after the Spring Festival. The spot rubber price in China's natural rubber market was around 12,900 RMB/ton on February 26, which was around 12,610 RMB/ton on February 18, an increase of 2.30%.

After the Spring Festival, the natural rubber market fluctuated and rose, with the Shanghai rubber 05 contract rising from 13,400 RMB/ton to around 13,800 RMB/ton. Currently, Thailand imports latex barrels at around 13,500-13,600 RMB/ton, bulk at around 12,600-12,700 RMB/ton, Vietnam imports latex bulk at around 11,600-11,800 RMB/ton, and domestically produced latex bulk at around 11,700 RMB/ton.

On the supply side, raw material output is limited and prices remain high. In Thailand, raw material output is limited and prices have slightly increased; Vietnam's production areas have entered a shutdown period; China has entered a period of cutting cessation. At present, it is still in the off-season for seasonal construction, and some factories are shutting down. As of February 18, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao Bonded and General Trade in Qingdao area was 675,700 tons, an increase of 21,800 tons or 3.34% compared to the previous period, indicating a significant accumulation of inventory in Qingdao Bonded Zone.

On the demand side: During the holiday season, downstream tire production was low, and the demand was weak. After the Spring Festival, downstream tire production increased, providing certain support for styrene butadiene rubber. It is understood that as of February 15, 2024, the operating rates of semi steel tire and full steel tire devices have remained within 20% respectively.

At present, the supply of raw materials at home and abroad is tight, with domestic production areas entering a shutdown period and some foreign production areas entering a shutdown period. The strong prices of raw materials support the natural rubber market; At present, downstream factories are gradually resuming production, and the procurement of natural rubber may increase. However, downstream restocking may take some time, and it is expected that the natural rubber spot market will mainly consolidate at a high level in the near future.

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