SunSirs: China Domestic Natural Rubber Market has Fluctuated recently

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the spot price of natural rubber in China has fluctuated widely since April. As of April 17th, the spot rubber market in China was around 13,820 RMB/ton, down 0.29% from April 1st at around 13,860 RMB/ton. The highest point was 14,090 RMB/ton, and the lowest point was 13,700 RMB/ton, with an amplitude of 2.85%.

Recently, the natural rubber market has been fluctuating, with the Shanghai rubber 05 contract fluctuating at around 14,500 RMB/ton, rising to around 15,500 RMB/ton, and later falling to around 14,300 RMB/ton; The Shanghai rubber 09 contract fluctuated and rose to around 15,200 RMB/ton at around 14,800 RMB/ton, and later fell to around 14,500 RMB/ton. Currently, Thailand imports latex barrels at around 13,700-13,900 RMB/ton, bulk at around 12,100-12,300 RMB/ton, Vietnam imports latex bulk at around 11,400-11,500 RMB/ton, and domestically produced latex bulk at around 11,300 RMB/ton.

Cost side: Currently, Thailand's raw material production areas have not yet started large-scale cutting. As of April 11th, the price of Thai adhesive is 73.5 Thai baht/kg, with fluctuating prices; Vietnam's production areas are still in a period of no harvest; Due to drought issues in the domestic Yunnan production area, rubber cutting is not smooth, and the cutting area is narrowed. There is currently no quotation for Yunnan raw materials; Due to the impact of high temperatures, large-scale cutting in Hainan's production area is expected to occur by the end of the month, leading to an increase in the prices of raw materials in the Hainan market. The limited increase in market supply and the rising prices of raw materials in the domestic Hainan production area have supported the natural rubber market.

On the demand side, downstream tire production has remained relatively stable, with primary demand procurement. As of April 17th, the operating load of semi steel tires for domestic tire enterprises is around 80%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region exceeds 70%; Overall, there is some support for natural rubber in terms of supply and demand, but currently the natural rubber market is still at a high level. Tire companies are cautious in their procurement and prioritize rigid demand.

Inventory: As of April 12th, the natural rubber inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange was 217,721 tons, a decrease of 360 tons; Futures inventory decreased by 770 tons from 214,230. As of April 14, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao Bonded and General Trade in Qingdao area was 634,100 tons, a decrease of 9,400 tons or 1.46% compared to the previous period. During the recent overseas low production shutdown period, the arrival of natural rubber at ports has decreased, and the ports are currently in a state of destocking.

Market forecast: Domestic production areas on the supply side will gradually open up, and it is expected that the supply of raw materials in the market may increase; At present, the operating rate of downstream tire factories on the demand side is high, but the prices of enterprises remain stable, coupled with the high prices of natural rubber, tire companies have a cautious purchasing mentality; At present, the inventory of natural rubber in ports continues to decrease. It is expected that the natural rubber spot market will mainly consolidate at a high level in the near future.

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